The Texas Political Report: A Joint Project of Burnt Orange Report and Annie's List

You need a "Like" button. Great job! n/t (4.00 / 2)

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by: M. Eddie Rodriguez @ Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 22:45:18 PM UTC

Yes I agree! (0.00 / 0)

But you can like them on facebook, too!
Saw Matt on tv. did well.

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by: TexMex @ Wed Sep 08, 2010 at 11:37:41 AM UTC

This is a fine piece of work (0.00 / 0)

This joint project discounts the very possibility in Texas of what Bill Galston calls a "wave" election, like 1994 or 2002.

But, both state party establishments are artifacts today of the bi-partisan concession-tending that dominates (i) Congressional campaign committees out of DC, (ii) the state legislature in Austin, and (iii) local government in cities other than Austin.

Austin is a sort of theme-park propped up by the River Authorities, the Legislative extraction industry, and, of course, the University plantations, not really a city. In any case, neither Texas party does "waves". Those sweep into Texas from other states despite the reactionary liberals and conservatives in Austin.

Still, this may not be a wave election. We just do not know, yet. And, even if it is, the particulars of local races detailed in this fine report will still have a marginal effect.

All I can add is ...

1/

The Frost/Baron/Angle's 2005 plan to Turn Texas Blue and, thereby, to control re-districting is probably dead, even under the best of circumstances.

The reason is, simply, that to do anything that radical the TDP has to be competitive rather than collaborative and innovative rather than emulative. That is not "rocket science", but it is not the "Grisham novel" we still live in here, either.

2/

Two of the Houston races, 133 and 138, are very tight, as concisely described, with one exception: Both will likely be influenced decisively by a charter amendment on the City of Houston ballot involving roads and drainage, also a new tax. This has both bi-partisan opposition (populist) and non-partisan support (establishment).

Since the GOP is able to raise money as the ruling party in the County and run as the opposition party in the City -- leaving Democrats looking hapless and clueless -- the net effect of right-wing activism and left-wing neutralism may be to knock off the Democratic incumbent and challenger.

3/

The catastrophic fire which destroyed the DRE voting plant is like "weather", including "fog", in battle. It adversely effects both sides. In government, the GOP has a recovery plan and the Democrats support it. The most prominent feature of that plan is not doing anything -- like extending hours or days -- that might help Bill White.

The effect of the fire, in all events, is to make the election process very complex technically and confusing logistically.

So, with their superior mobilization technology and anti-tax pseudo-populism, the GOP may be able to better exploit the fire. In any case, the effective vote-suppression campaign they run out of the Tax Office is still intact. So, between those two advantages, they may be able to keep the already dismal political participation rate in Harris County low, thereby, sinking Bill White statewide and sweeping the county.

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by: JRBehrman @ Wed Sep 08, 2010 at 17:49:14 PM UTC