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Rasmussen Poll Shows "Small Lead" for Perry, Race is Absolutely Competitive


by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas

Mon Aug 23, 2010 at 11:56 AM CDT


When even Rasmussen says Perry only has a "small lead" over Bill White (the latest is 49-41), it makes you wonder how the race really stands, doesn't it? From their latest poll:

Neither major party candidate appears to be gaining any ground in Texas' gubernatorial race, with Republican incumbent Rick Perry still holding a small lead.

[...]

Despite the perceived differences in ideology, 51% of voters in the state describe Perry’s political views as mainstream, and 52% say the same of White's views. Thirty-three percent (33%) brand Perry's views as extreme, and 29% think White's are extreme.

Rick Perry consistently polls below 50%; meanwhile, Bill White has built a $3-million cash-on-hand advantage over Perry.

Here's an update on all the public polls in the race. As you can see, the average remains unchanged -- though, you have to remember that the average is dominated by Rasmussen, an outfit that has shown to set the narratives for races by favoring Republicans in its polls only for the gaps to somehow always narrow just before election day.

The race is absolutely competitive. I'm looking forward to the next 71 days...

Texas Governor's Race: Public Polls
DatePollster Rick Perry
Bill White
Other
Undecided
Jan. 17Rasmussen50 40
4
6
Feb. 1Rasmussen 4839
5
8
Feb. 7TX Tribune

44

35
8
12
Feb. 7PPP
48
42
 -10
Feb. 10
TX Newspapers
43
37-
13
Feb. 10Research 2000
46
42
-
12
Feb. 22Rasmussen 47
41
5
7
Mar. 3
Rasmussen 49
433
6
Apr. 14Rasmussen 48
44
2
6
May 13Rasmussen 51
38
46
May 20
TX Tribune
44
35
75
June 18Rasmussen
48
40
5
8
June 22PPP
43
43-
14
July 15
Rasmussen
48
40
2
7
Aug. 23
Rassmussen
49
41
3
7
PUBLIC POLL AVERAGE
47%40%
4.3%
8.5%

 

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Did you read the rest of the Ramussen post? (0.00 / 0)
"The race remains Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports' Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard."

Of course I did (3.00 / 1)
Which makes me ask -- how can a race be a "small lead" and they still consider it solidly GOP? Bias, anybody?

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
I am not a Nate Silver. (3.00 / 3)
I am not even a Nate Walker.  

But if the conspiracy theorist are right and there is a Rassmussen republican house effect, then let's redo Phillip's poll average without Rassmussen.  We are limited then to just 6 samples.  Some, it appears, take into account third party candidates.  Some do not.  Some are of registered voters.  Some are of likely voters.  Some are IVR.  Some are live.  One is a Research 2000 poll - warning.  Some are internet opt-in polls (which scare the bejeezus out of me, but are the future of polling.)  

Long story short, this is a bad exercise to even think about.  But . . the poll average is now 45 - 39 - 3 - 11.  I think that makes the most sense to me.  


Rassmusen bias (0.00 / 0)
We know that Rassmusen is biased towards Republicans, so it's significant that even Rassmusen says Perry only has a slight lead.Daily Kos list the Texas governor's race as a tossup in a story today.

Time to keep making those phone calls folks.


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