Rasmussen Poll Shows “Small Lead” for Perry, Race is Absolutely Competitive

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When even Rasmussen says Perry only has a “small lead” over Bill White (the latest is 49-41), it makes you wonder how the race really stands, doesn't it? From their latest poll:

Neither major party candidate appears to be gaining any ground in Texas' gubernatorial race, with Republican incumbent Rick Perry still holding a small lead.

[…]

Despite the perceived differences in ideology, 51% of voters in the state describe Perry’s political views as mainstream, and 52% say the same of White's views. Thirty-three percent (33%) brand Perry's views as extreme, and 29% think White's are extreme.

Rick Perry consistently polls below 50%; meanwhile, Bill White has built a $3-million cash-on-hand advantage over Perry.

Here's an update on all the public polls in the race. As you can see, the average remains unchanged — though, you have to remember that the average is dominated by Rasmussen, an outfit that has shown to set the narratives for races by favoring Republicans in its polls only for the gaps to somehow always narrow just before election day.

The race is absolutely competitive. I'm looking forward to the next 71 days…

Texas Governor's Race: Public Polls
Date Pollster Rick Perry
Bill White
Other
Undecided
Jan. 17 Rasmussen 50 40
4 6
Feb. 1 Rasmussen 48 39
5 8
Feb. 7 TX Tribune

44

35
8 12
Feb. 7 PPP 48
42
 – 10
Feb. 10 TX Newspapers
43
37 13
Feb. 10 Research 2000 46
42
12
Feb. 22 Rasmussen 47
41
5 7
Mar. 3 Rasmussen 49
43 3 6
Apr. 14 Rasmussen 48
44
2 6
May 13 Rasmussen 51
38
4 6
May 20 TX Tribune 44
35
7 5
June 18 Rasmussen 48
40
5 8
June 22 PPP 43
43 14
July 15 Rasmussen 48
40
2 7
Aug. 23 Rassmussen 49
41
3 7
PUBLIC POLL AVERAGE
47% 40%
4.3%
8.5%

 

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About Author

Phillip Martin

Currently the Research and Policy Director for Progress Texas and the Texas Research Institute, Phillip Martin writes occasional long-form pieces for BOR that promote focused analysis and insight into Texas politics. Born and raised in Austin, Phillip started working in politics in 2003 and started writing on BOR in the summer of 2005. Phillip has worked for the Texas Democratic Trust, the Texas Legislative Study Group, and now the Progress Texas family. He is a lifelong Houston Astros fan, a loyal Longhorn, and loves swimming at Barton Springs Pool.

4 Comments

  1. Did you read the rest of the Ramussen post?
    “The race remains Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports' Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.”

  2. Mark Littlefield on

    I am not a Nate Silver.
    I am not even a Nate Walker.  

    But if the conspiracy theorist are right and there is a Rassmussen republican house effect, then let's redo Phillip's poll average without Rassmussen.  We are limited then to just 6 samples.  Some, it appears, take into account third party candidates.  Some do not.  Some are of registered voters.  Some are of likely voters.  Some are IVR.  Some are live.  One is a Research 2000 poll – warning.  Some are internet opt-in polls (which scare the bejeezus out of me, but are the future of polling.)  

    Long story short, this is a bad exercise to even think about.  But . . the poll average is now 45 – 39 – 3 – 11.  I think that makes the most sense to me.  

  3. Rassmusen bias
    We know that Rassmusen is biased towards Republicans, so it's significant that even Rassmusen says Perry only has a slight lead.Daily Kos list the Texas governor's race as a tossup in a story today.

    Time to keep making those phone calls folks.

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