New numbers from PPP in the Governor's race confirm what many of us have been feeling for months: it's neck and neck. Their numbers show Bill White currently tied 43-43 with failed incumbent Rick Perry, whose negatives continue to climb. White, meanwhile, has reversed Perry's 11-point lead with independents to currently lead 42-36 among the group. From Public Policy Polling:
Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad- just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he's doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread.
Some interesting numbers in the cross-tabs:
- Bill White leads among women, 46%-38%, with 16% undecided.
- White leads or ties amongst all age groups under 65, and runs strongest amongst voters under 29.
- White posts a commanding 34-point lead amongst Hispanic voters. Increasing Hispanic turnout over traditional midterm levels will be key to his victory in November.
- Of the respondents who described themselves as “Conservative,” 24% disapprove of Rick Perry.
- Only 8% of self-described Democrats view White negatively; 26% of Republicans disapprove of Rick Perry.
The poll also included some interesting numbers on Rick Perry's Presidential ambitions:
- Only 10% of Texas voters want to see Rick Perry run for President in 2012.
- 69% specifically do NOT want him to make the jump. That includes 61% of Republicans and 59% of self-described conservatives.
See, Texans love America after all. We learned our lesson with that Bush guy. It's interesting. Yesterday, @ppppolls tweeted that their new numbers in a race only polled by Republican-leaning Rasmussen might change the conventional wisdom a lot. With their new numbers in the Perry-White match-up, one could assume that PPP may well have been referring to Texas. But for those of us on the ground here in Texas, who are living the failed policies of 10 years of Rick Perry, it's no surprise: Texans are ready for a new governor.
Update by Phillip: Updated the public poll average. Two things to note:
- Average won't change much with a tie. At some point, I'll probably drop off some of the earlier, pre-primary polls, but for now I want to stick with averaging all 13 polls that have come out.
- Look at the last four polls: Perry's lead has gone from 13, to 9, to 8, to tied.
Here's the chart:
|Texas Governor's Race: Public Polls|
|Date||Pollster||Rick Perry ||Bill White ||Other ||Undecided|
|Jan. 17||Rasmussen||50 ||40||4||6|
|Feb. 7||TX Tribune|
|Feb. 10||TX Newspapers||43||37||–||13|
|Feb. 10||Research 2000||46||42||–||12|
|May 20||TX Tribune||44||35||7||5|
|June 18||Rasmussen||48||40 ||5||8|
|June 22||PPP||43 ||43||–||14|
|PUBLIC POLL AVERAGE ||47%||40%||5%||9%|