| Democratic Strategy
Regulatory Reform is a winning issue for Democrats and they desperately need it to help mitigate losses in the upcoming mid-term elections. Frankly, the Democrats have been very fortunate to have Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) spearheading their efforts on Reg Reform. Why? Because he is retiring. Connecticut is known for its insurance industry so a great number of people thought that Dodd, after working on Reg Reform for about a year upon announcing his retirement, might move the legislation more to the Right. I think him being released of the burden of having to run a campaign, and the lobbyists and influential individuals with money that come with running a campaign, has allowed Dodd to be what he traditionally has not been throughout his career---a fighter for the little guy. Some argue that he is looking out for his legacy, and perhaps that is some motivation for him, but I think he also wants to truly pass legislation that is for the good of the country. He is an old school politician that, even though he can be partisan in public, is well regarded across the aisle and behind the scenes. It is his desire to pass a bi-partisan bill, and his skill in working behind the scenes with Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) as much as he has the Ranking Member, Richard Shelby (R-AL), appear to be yielding the results both privately, and publicly, that are needed to garner popular opinion and pass a bi-partisan bill just in time for the mid-terms. Democrats, led by Dodd's Reg Reform legislation, will continue and paint Republicans as obstructionists and defenders of Wall Street, and that is a position that Democrats are happy to articulate from now till November.
Republican Strategy
Republicans have been positioning themselves in the manner they did on Health Care by just saying "no!" Would you have expected anything less out of them? That position was a losing position for them when Health Care Reform was perceived as an unpopular issue with the vast majority of the American people, but President Obama still won. Take a losing issue with Republicans in Reg Reform, and couple that with the proposed legislation being a popular issue with the electorate, and you will have not only another legislative victory for the President, but a bi-partisan one too. Financial industry money has been going to Republicans this election cycle and Democrats know that. The best position that Republicans can take, and the financial industry depends on at this point to have any effect at all on Reg Reform, is to get back to the negotiating table and water down this legislation. At this point Republicans like Voinovich (OH), and even newly elected Scott Brown (MA), will vote for Reg Reform because one is retiring and the other represents a liberal state. It's a given that Collins (ME) and Snowe (ME) jump on board too. I would not be surprised if Corker (TN) votes in favor of Reg Reform because he has been hand-slapped by the Republican leadership for attempting to negotiate with Dodd outside the authority of Ranking Member Shelby (AL). Republicans feel they have anti-Democratic sentiment in their favor, but this election cycle is an anti-incumbent one, not anti-Democratic. Taking the position of "no" without offering any substantive alternative, plus fundraising and defending Wall Street, will only turn the anger of voters, who wish to see the financial industry suffer the same pain they have suffered, on to them---to the delight of Democrats.
Tomorrow I'll discuss Reg Reforms passing and overall impact on the upcoming mid-term elections. |
