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Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 09:11 PM CDT
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( - promoted by Matt Glazer)
After a Republican primary that included five candidates and a runoff between two candidates that was very contentious, Congressman Chet Edwards reminded the Republican nominee Bill Flores this week that the general election campaign has begun. The day after the primary Edwards released a video in which he made the case for why the citizens of Congressional District 17 should reelect him, and he criticized Flores for being the choice of "Washington, D.C. insiders" and being a "Houston oil executive" who has never "once voted in our district." The Waco Tribune-Herald reports that the Flores campaign responded by calling Edwards a "career politician" and that he is "desperately attacking."
This campaign will be expensive. Flores dramatically outspent Curnock in the primary; while Curnock spent $175,000 in the primary Flores spent $750,000. However, now Flores faces one of the best funded Democrats in Texas, and also already spent a considerable amount of money in the primary (a significant amount of which was self-financed). The Tribune-Herald reported that the Edwards campaign announced that it raised $594,000 during the current reporting period, compared to the $29,000 that Flores raised during the same period. After depleting much of their finances the Flores campaign reported $60,000 cash on hand, while the Edwards campaign is sitting on $1.7 million cash on hand. Edwards is of the few Democrats in Congress that has been targeted by the Republican Party who has been able to raise more money than his opponent. However, Flores has already contributed nearly a half million dollars to his campaign, so it appears as if there is going to be a large amount of money that will be spent over the next 200 days.
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| While Republican may have the momentum heading into the midterm elections (excluding any unforeseen circumstances), it is going to be difficult for Flores to defeat Edwards in November. While there is vocal criticism and opposition to Edwards in the district, the majority of that opposition comes from the conservative base which has always and will continue to vote against Edwards. During his tenure in the Congress Edwards has built a strong reputation in the district, and his support of veterans and his ability to secure federal funds for the district have been strong campaign points. In order to win in the low turnout midterm elections it is important for candidates to turnout their base, which is where Flores may run into a problem. During the Republican primary Flores was heavily criticized by the more conservative candidates and conservative blogosphere for not being conservative enough.
There are several external factors that will have a significant impact of this campaign. The direction the economy takes in the next seven months is going to be a major factor, and if the economy improves it will be beneficial for Edwards and likewise if the economy does not improve or actually gets worse it will be beneficial for Flores. The campaign for governor may have an impact; since midterm elections are general about motivating the base if Democrats in Texas are energized at the chance to take back the Governor's Mansion that could turn into an advantage for Edwards. This is probably going to be a long and tough campaign, and it is likely that whichever candidate can run the most consistent and disciplined campaign will be in a position to give an acceptance speech on election night.
Political and Social Thought...
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