The Medina Conservatives: How Many Today and How Many Tomorrow?

by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas

Tue Mar 02, 2010 at 07:00 AM CST

Ed. note: This is the second in a series of five morning stories about today's elections I'll be posting every hour. The first one: "How Does Rick Perry Beat Bill White Without Moderates and Without Medina Conservatives?"

On the Republican side of the ticket, the most important returns tonight won't be for Rick Perry, and they won't be for Kay Bailey Hutchison. Debra Medina's support tonight -- and what her supporters do tomorrow -- could define the next eight months in a way nothing else we see in tonight's numbers can.

Debra Medina, no matter what, is not getting behind Rick Perry. From the Statesman's profile on her, "Medina was a controversial force in Wharton County Politics":

The old-guard Republicans accuse Medina and her supporters of being closeted Libertarians, while the Medina fans say the others aren't real Republicans because they don't adhere strictly to the GOP platform on issues such as abortion.

What both sides can agree on is that the Wharton County Republican Party wasn't the same after Medina took over.

Shaking things up in her party seems to be a pattern for Medina, who has sued the state Republican Party, clashed with Murrile over county spending and is now running for governor in a GOP primary that already includes two heavyweights, Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

When asked if she would support Hutchison or Perry, Medina has said she would support a third party candidate (Source: " The Debra Medina Show: How She Unveiled Rick Perry's Fake Tea Party Persona"). In yesterday's Fort Worth Star-Telegram, one Medina supporter prominently said she would not be supporting Perry and quite possibly the still-to-be-chosen Libertarian party candidate in November:

Fort Worth Tea Party activist Deborah TeSelle says she is unsure where she will ultimately place her loyalty if Medina, who was hurt by a gaffe in a radio interview with conservative commentator Glenn Beck, doesn't survive Tuesday.

"There are reasons why we're not supporting Gov. Perry," said TeSelle, who founded the Fort Worth 912 Project, a grassroots conservative organization. "We're just going to look to see who's on the ballot in the fall and consider [which candidate is] most likely to stand up for our constitutional liberties."

She said she will take a closer look at White but added, "It's hard to imagine that any Democrat would qualify." Supporting the yet-to-be-chosen Libertarian nominee might be another possibility, she said.

Two things I want to emphasize: the Glenn Beck side of this story and the 912 project, and why choosing a Libertarian candidate may not be TeSelle's only route:

On February 8, 2010, Glenn Beck called Rick Perry a progressive and trashed him for two solid minutes. 

For Debra Medina supporters, they saw their moment of truth. The 912 Project that TeSelle started was a Glenn-Beck inspired idea. Those principles -- crafted and created by corporate Republicans long ago -- were part of the anti-government movement generated by national Republicans. Medina's supporters are simply the Republicans who recognize the fiscal irresponsibility of Rick Perry, and don't believe Republicans are automatically great. Beck calling out Perry was a great moment.

Until three days later -- when he attacked TeSelle and her candidate, Debra Medina. The "truther" comment erupted, and it became quite obvious to her supporters that Glenn Beck set her up. Once the news of the $286,400 in donations Clear Channel CEO and Chairman Lowry Mays gave Rick Perry in the last decade started to line up with Beck's attack, the lines only grew firmer. And then, of course, there was this:

GLENN BECK: While I don't endorse anyone

PAT: Problematic?

GLENN: I think I can write her off the list. Let me take another look at Kay Bailey Hutchison if I have to. Rick, I think you and I could French kiss right now.

PAT: Let me tell you something. He's a damn handsome man.

GLENN: He's a damn handsome man.

PAT: Looks good in a pair of jeans.

GLENN: Wow.

PAT: He's a handsome man. 

Now, in the latest polls, Medina has shown to not even be slipping that much -- because they saw the lie for what it was. Medina's supporters have been betrayed by Rick Perry, Glenn Beck, and the entire artificial Tea Party movement that Michael Quinn Sullivan and others continue to push as spin to the media. (Sullivan has recently been called out by the Dallas Morning News for misrepresenting their quotes in his mail pieces for his own political lies). Medina's supporters aren't ever trusting Republican spin machine again -- and now that the press can see the division among Republicans on this front, it should be obvious how Perry losing parts of his base make him more vulnerable in the next election.

Especially if a Libertarian or third-party candidate gets on the ballot -- or sues to challenge the state ballot access laws.

Remember how restrictive it can be to get on the ballot as an independent:

1. One must first file a Declaration of Intent to Run as an Independent Candidate between December 3, 2009 and January 4, 2010, with the county judge (county offices) or the Secretary of State (district and state offices).
2. After the primary elections, collect signatures from registered voters, who support your application for a place on the general election ballot.
3. The signers must be registered voters who have not participated in the general primary election or the runoff primary election of a party that has nominated, at either election, a candidate for the office you seek.
4. File the application, along with petition, by May 13, 2010.

Imagine a runoff did occur -- all signatures would have to be collected in the month between April 13 and May 13, 2010. Debra Medina cannot run as an independent, and neither can anyone at this point. Unless a lawsuit is filed -- which is completely possible. And considering the natural little-d democracy championed by Medina and her supporters, I'd imagine they would have a very authentic challenge to the law if they went down that path.

Then again, support for a Libertarian candidate from the Medina wing of the Republican primary would be huge. That's why what can matter most is how many votes Medina can get today, and how many continue to follow her tomorrow.

Medina has always faced uphill battles, but she's a true believer and someone very committed to her cause. Republicans like Perry will dismiss her as "frivolous" after the election ends, and the press corps will feel comfortable doing the same as they already did after the Glenn Beck setup.

But don't count Debra Medina out yet, I don't know if she has any quit in her...