With the close of early voting, we say the traditional bump on the final days with over 4000 cast on Friday in the Democratic primary. A total of 15,826 votes were cast early (with a slight bump in that eventually to come as some mail ballots are received before the deadline).
As such, here's what the total Travis county Democratic primary turnout will look like depending on the percentage of the total vote comes from early vote compared to election days. Here is what total turnout looks like in a couple different scenarios. The bolded one is what our BOR models had been based on though I've provided a number of different scenarios.
If 45% of the vote is cast early... Dem Primary turnout is: 35,169
If 48% of the vote is cast early... Dem Primary turnout is: 32,971
If 52% of the vote is cast early... Dem Primary turnout is: 31,652
If 55% of the vote is cast early... Dem Primary turnout is: 28,775
If 60% of the vote is cast early... Dem Primary turnout is: 26,377
This is the final chart of how those models turned out. The final day's vote of over 4,000 was a little higher than expected. For history's sake...
