(Bumped for our weekday readers as this was a rare weekend poll post. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
One of the things that I look forward to doing more of this year is commissioning polling on under polled races in Texas. As such, I'd like to extend my thanks to the Capital Area Asian American Democrats (CAAAD), who have commissioned a poll of select competitive Travis County Democratic Primary races. (I'd also like to thank CAAAD for their advertising here on BOR as regular readers may have noticed in the past week).
CAAAD has previously polled in Austin, last released in the 2008 City Races, and privately in past primaries for its endorsed candidates. While limited, they have had a decent track record in accurately polling races, both in a review of their public and private numbers which I've had the opportunity to check. I say that largely to pre-empt the inevitable dismissal of results by campaigns they do not favor.
Poll Results
IVR Poll conducted Feb 25th, 2010 by KCZ Consulting for CAAAD, choices rotated
Governor, Democratic Primary: MoE = 4.3%
Bill White 85.0%
Farouk Shami 5.8%
Someone Else 2.8%
Undecided 6.4%
This matches up with the word on the street and rumored polls showing Bill White absolutely killing the Democratic field for Governor in Travis County. With White pulling in numbers akin to his re-election rates as Mayor of Houston (91% and 87%) the race is on for second place for the rest of the field in Austin. Talk about embarrassing for Farouk Shami's multi-million dollar campaign. Ouch.
201st District Court: MoE = 4.7%
Amy Clark Meachum 52.1%
Jan Patterson 27.2%
Undecided 20.6%
If these numbers turn out to be true, Amy Clark Meachum is well positioned heading into Election Day.
299th District Court: MoE = 4.6%
Mindy Montford 40.8%
Karen Sage 31.4%
Leonard Martinez 5.8%
Eve Schatelowitz Alcantar 2.1%
Undecided 19.9%
As many have expected, the 299th District Court appears to be heading to a runoff. What is unexpected is that Mindy Montford may be the vote leader heading into a runoff. It should be noted, that if the 20% undecided break in the same way as those who have made up their mind, there is a chance that Montford could break 50% and win the election without a runoff. I'd argue that the undecided vote is more likely choosing between Montford and Sage meaning there is little additional support to be coming to Martinez or Schatelowitz-Alcantar, which makes this 4-way race much more of a 2-way race in the final days.
County Court at Law #3: MoE = 5.5%
John Lipscombe 42.3%
Olga Seelig 33.7%
Undecided 24.0%
Further down the ballot there are more undecided voters here than anywhere else. Separated by single digits, Lipscombe has the advantage needing far fewer of the remaining undecideds to break his way. But Seelig isn't out of the game after winning the endorsement from the Statesman and making a late loan of over $30,000 to her campaign.
And as a bonus question unrelated to this year's primaries...
Do you support or oppose the City of Austin banning the use of plastic bags by large retailers? MoE = 5.5%
Support 50.2%
Oppose 28.2%
Undecided 21.7%
For more information, you can visit www.BagtheBags.com with regard to that final question. |
