It's been a few days since I've pulled together the early vote numbers and run them through the models for projecting total Democratic turnout for the primary (at least in Travis County). The projections had been falling every day so far until today, when it actually bounced up due to a higher than expected Monday turnout. So it's possible that we may have hit a stabilizing point or it could just be that people have enjoyed the nice weather and are more in a mood to vote. With some degree of wintery mix hitting the Central Texas region Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if that dampens the recent uptick in voters.
(-2331 from Friday's projection, +602 from yesterday's)
Remember, follow the red line for our purposes here, it's the weighted average primary model and it's nice to see everything else slowly closing in on it. According to the models, we should see about 1450-1500 Democratic primary votes cast in Travis County for Tuesday, but that's assuming that the cold snap doesn't have an impact which I assume it will.
Top early votes for Democrats by turnout are Randalls Research (620), Randalls Ben White (547), Tax Office (543), Randalls South Mopac (518), & Ben Hur Hall (480). The UT location which started out first and then fell to fifth in our last report, has kept dropping and is now 9th overall, though that is in part to traditionally weak weekend voting on campus and traditional strong weekend voting at places people shop.
The overall weakest early vote sites for Democrats are Goodwill Norwood Park (108), Dan Ruiz Library (110), Carver Museum (111), Parque Zaragoza (116), and Chinatown Center (119).
In somewhat exciting news, Republican poll workers at Parque Zaragoza finally saw a primary voter for the first time Monday since last Thursday bringing the total GOP early vote at that location to 14. But don't be fooled, the lowest GOP early vote site turnout crown still belongs to the Carver Museum which has seen just 12 GOP voters grace their doors.