Latest Travis County Primary Turnout Estimate: 33,700

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It's been a few days since I've pulled together the early vote numbers and run them through the models for projecting total Democratic turnout for the primary (at least in Travis County). The projections had been falling every day so far until today, when it actually bounced up due to a higher than expected Monday turnout. So it's possible that we may have hit a stabilizing point or it could just be that people have enjoyed the nice weather and are more in a mood to vote. With some degree of wintery mix hitting the Central Texas region Tuesday, it will be interesting to see if that dampens the recent uptick in voters.

Today's Estimate: 33,699 Total Democratic Travis County Primary Voters 

(-2331
 from Friday's projection, +602 from yesterday's)

 

Remember, follow the red line for our purposes here, it's the weighted average primary model and it's nice to see everything else slowly closing in on it. According to the models, we should see about 1450-1500 Democratic primary votes cast in Travis County for Tuesday, but that's assuming that the cold snap doesn't have an impact which I assume it will. 

Top early votes for Democrats by turnout are Randalls Research (620), Randalls Ben White (547), Tax Office (543), Randalls South Mopac (518), & Ben Hur Hall (480). The UT location which started out first and then fell to fifth in our last report, has kept dropping and is now 9th overall, though that is in part to traditionally weak weekend voting on campus and traditional strong weekend voting at places people shop. 

The overall weakest early vote sites for Democrats are Goodwill Norwood Park (108), Dan Ruiz Library (110), Carver Museum (111), Parque Zaragoza (116), and Chinatown Center (119).

In somewhat exciting news, Republican poll workers at Parque Zaragoza finally saw a primary voter for the first time Monday since last Thursday bringing the total GOP early vote at that location to 14. But don't be fooled, the lowest GOP early vote site turnout crown still belongs to the Carver Museum which has seen just 12 GOP voters grace their doors.  

 

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Former Publisher & Owner of the Burnt Orange Report. Political Thinker, Digital Explorer, and Time Traveler.

2 Comments

  1. Great Analysis
    Thanks KT for all the work to graph this and past elections. I'm wondering if I'm not getting the up to date data from Travis County. Is there a site that posts the actual numbers per day other than http://www.sos.state.tx.us/ele… They're showing a total of 13,900. Is that the same data that you're using? –Lainey





    Lainey Melnick

    Candidate for US Congress

    Texas 21st District

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    • From the Elections Office
      First note, the number you posted is for GOP and DEM primary voters combined. I'm only looking at the DEM primary voters for estimating total turnout from early and election day. I really don't have any insight to the GOP numbers, nor do I really care and bet that most of our readers are in the same boat.

      As to the updated numbers, I get the file each night from the County that has both primaries and the breakouts by location. There is another file that actually has the raw voters but I leave that for campaigns and consultants to pick through, scrub their lists, and drill down into the data. Mary Fero typically is the contact point at the elections division if you want to follow up.  

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