Burnt Orange Report

Hardberger Elected Mayor of San Antonio

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

It's finally over. 18.8% turnout, higher than the first round.

Total Votes / Percent / Early Votes / Election Day

Phil Hardberger ......... 66,830 / 51.47% / 30,024 / 36,806

Julian Castro ........... 63,001 / 48.53% / 21,548 / 41,453

San Antonio Update

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Keep up with the returns here at the Bexar County elections website. Original election last month has returns here for comparison.

But as of 10:06 pm, in total votes, the race has narrowed enormously from the early vote numbers which put Hardberger over Castro, 58-42, about an 8500 vote margin. But now he leads 52-48, though Red State has just reported that they hear it's because Castro's boxes have come in first (Castro is leading by 6000 votes in Election Day totals.

Now, IF the runoff followed the regular election, there should be just over half (51-52%) cast on Election Day compared to early vote. And IF Castro's Election Day margin (60-40) holds out for the rest of the ballots or even weakens a bit, he would pull the vote deficit and win. But of course, that does not take into account the fact that not all precincts are equal and if have already come in to a greater degree, then it looks less bright for the Castro campaign. And remember, Republicans vote early, Democrats prefer Election Day, so that would explain the results so far if those Republican voters are indeed following the endorsement of their vanquished candidate. Of course, that may also mean that the hardcore active, "I'll do what's best to Stop a Hispanic" crowd has already voted, leaving Hardberger possibly weak in turnout in his better precincts today.

Of course, the runoffs for District 6 and 7 look to be headed to a larger turnout in the runoff than on Election Day, and those are both on Castro's turf.

Update: Hardberger’s lead shrinks to 1467 vote, down from his 8476 lead in early vote. Castro picks up 7000 votes against him as of now on Election Day, puling 58.4% of the e-day total. Margin now 50.79 - 49.21 with about 55% reporting. We could see higher turnout on e-day comparative to the original election, which helps Castro at this point.

Likely winners now in District 6 and 7, each leading by about 11 points, are...

6- Delicia Herrera (endorsed by the Sierra Club and Stonewall Democrats) beats Ray Lopez (endorsed by Mayor Ed Garza, the Express-News, and Police)

7- Elena Guajardo (involved with Stonewall and Tejano Democrats) beats Noel Suniga (also endorsed by the Express News, his website banner includes "family values" and "taxpayers" so I'm going to guess he was the more conservative of the two.)

Looks like a good night for those two races at least, even though I haven’t paid attention to them until now. If anyone has some info, post a comment.

Update: 10:37, 59% reporting.
Hardberger / 50.92% / 49,981
Castro / 49.8% / 48,167

Hardberger lead now 1814.

Update Red State says that these are the numbers by Commissioner precinct...

Pct. 3 ~ 69 out of 205 counted (33%)
Pct. 1 ~ 75 out of 125 counted (60%)
Pct. 4 ~ 66 out of 198 counted (33%)
Pct. 2 ~ 98 out of 156 counted (63%)

Here is the map (pdf) for the precincts for the county, with the council districts in them.

San Antonio Run-off

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Results from the San Antonio Runoff will be coming in tonight. Though I won't likly be able to get to the computer until 9 pm, there will be some people following the news.

RedState will be liveblogging so that may be your best bet. For a short primer on what is going on, look to Latinos for Texas post from the Express News.

It's to be a close race tonight (though I hope Castro pulls it out). Kuff points to a mySA.com column that brings up some interesting points that could help Castro overcome his 5 point deficit in the last round of polling.

It would help if there were a City Council runoff on Schubert's turf. There isn't.

It would help if there were no runoffs in Castro's backyard. There are two.

It would help if Castro had a weak grassroots organization. He doesn't.

It would help if Hardberger and Schubert were not political opposites. They are.

It would help if Hardberger could count on a heavy turnout of Schubert supporters. He can't.

The candidate who probably can count on a heavy turnout is Castro.

The last time there were runoffs in Districts 6 and 7, more people voted in Round 2 than in Round 1.

That's one reason I give Castro a slight edge in the runoff. There are others.

The Jeffersonian says otherwise though... We shall see who is right soon enough.

Run-off Notes

By Byron LaMasters

Kuff, The Jeffersonian and San Antonio Election 2005 report on the latest from San Antonio. Third place finisher Carroll Schubert endorsed Phil Hardberger in the mayoral run-off.

In the Austin City Council Place 3 run-off, Margot Clarke has racked up some union support that went to Gregg Knauppe in round one. They include the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 520, the Central Texas Building Trades Council and the Sheetmetal Workers Local 67.

San Antonio Run-off a Squeaker in Survey USA Poll

By Byron LaMasters

I heard rumors earlier this week that Hardberger had taken a large lead in the polls in the San Antonio mayoral run-off race, which surprised me a little bit, but not too much. The vast majority of Shubert voters are likely to vote for Hardberger or stay home. In the end, this race will come down to turnout above all else. Survey USA has posted a poll showing an extremely close race within the margin of error:

San Antonio Mayor Runoff
5/24/2005

Hardberger - 50%
Castro - 47%
Undecided - 2%

Data Collected: 5/21/05 - 5/23/05
Geography: City of San Antonio
Sample Population: 447 Likely Voters
Margin of Error: 4.7%
Client: WOAI-TV San Antonio

Update: Analysis at The Red State, The Jeffersonian and Kuff.

A Brief Note

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I havn't been online in 5 days so anyone trying to contact me, that's why. But I find it really sad that when I do make it on, I find that 3 Senate Democrats were traitors on HJR 6. Especially after you pledge to keep it off the ballot (because we all know how smart the voters of Texas are) and thus the books. To you Senators Lucio and Madla in particular, the next time legislation comes up that strikes at the heart of your Hispanic contituants, someone please remind me not to give a damn and sell myself out for some other shitty two-bit piece of legislation.

To the 8 of you who voted against it, just like you did against DOMA, thank you. But next time (like there are any more next times except maybe the demonization of gay foster parents or rounding us up and registering us) please be aware you can't trust the word of certain Senators that claim to stand up for minority rights.

Things are okay here in Fredericksburg otherwise, the councilman is hard at work (though you Austinites may get to see him in July for a DFA MeetUp if things pan out).

And now, I need to respond to a certain candidate that is mulling a bid against Lamar Smith for 2006 (who has been mentioned around the comments). I'm excited and will report soon; I'll be back in Austin this Sunday for the summer.

Musselman Elected

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I'm back in Austin and wanted to give you guys a short report on the election in which I voted yesterday, that for Frederkcisburg City Council which my father Tom Musselman was running for. I'll have a more in depth report about things we did for this election and how our efforts paid off (once I have a chance to do some analysis on election results with our database). But for now, the following.

From the San Antonio-Express News...

Incumbent Tim Dooley and newcomer Tom Musselman won at-large seats on the Fredericksburg City Council on Saturday in a close race involving four candidates.

"I ran on pride in the community. My theme was pride, preservation and progress," said Musselman, a teacher at Fredericksburg High School making his first run for office.

Musselman, who finished on top, said he is joining a well-run city that must cope with growth.

"There's nothing broken in Fredericksburg," he said. "We need to preserve what makes us unique and we need to plan for our future."

Un-official elections returns are as follows (as 1 provisional ballot was cast):

1225 Total Votes- 18% Turnout

625 Tom Musselman*
551 Tim Dooley*
450 Ronnie Stotz
416 Sharon Bailey

*elected

El Paso Returns

By Byron LaMasters

There will be a run-off for mayor of El Paso. I would like to know what my El Paso friends think about that run-off and the city council races.

El Paso results here.

More from San Antonio

By Byron LaMasters

Good coverage last night from San Antonio Election 2005 and The Jeffersonian (great predictions by the way!). The Jeffersonian also has some good coverage of the San Antonio city council elections. Also, there is more at The Red State.

Anyone have a prediction for the Castro / Hardberger run-off?

The Results from Fredericksburg

By Byron LaMasters

I am sure that Karl-Thomas will give us all the details, but here are the results via Fredericksburg Standard:

Tom Musselman practiced what he teaches and drew the highest vote total in the Fredericksburg City Council race today, May 7.

Musselman, who teaches social studies at Fredericksburg High School, collected 625 votes to earn his first term on the Council.

Incumbent Tim Dooley won reelection as well, posting a total of 551 votes.

Neuro-diagnostic technician Ronnie Stotz finished third with 450 votes and former council member Sharon Bailey rounded out the slate of city candidates with 416.

The total number of voters was 1,232.

In a four candidate field (where voters could cast two at-large votes) Tom Musselman not only won, but 50.73% of Fredericksburg voters cast a vote for him. Next highest was incumbent Tim Dooley at 44.72%. MANDATE, anyone? Congratulations again to Tom Musselman and his family.

Castro Leads San Antonio Mayoral Race

By Byron LaMasters

The poll is from last week, but I just noticed it today. Survey USA took a poll for the San Antonio mayoral race. Here's the results:

Castro - 43%
Hardberger - 28%
Schubert - 22%
Other/Undecided - 7%

Data Collected: 4/11/05 - 4/13/05; Geography, City of San Antonio; Sample Population, 443 Likely Voters; Margin of Error, 4.8%; Client, WOAI-TV San Antonio

Blogging the San Antonio Mayoral Race

By Byron LaMasters

For all of you interested in following the race for mayor in San Antonio, check out the San Antonio Election 2005 Blog

Hill Country Democrats

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

This is a message for Hill Country area Democrats. Other counties may also be affected.

You might receive a letter with the return address of Gillespie County Area Democratic Party Annual Fund Drive (or maybe your county name instead of Gillespie).

The enclosure also says something similar. THIS IS NOT FROM GILLESPIE COUTNY or YOUR COUNTY and HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE LOCAL DEMOCRATS. I am embarrassed that someone in our own party is trying to con us.

Take the time to call your county chair for their input. If you are a Gillespie County Democrat, my advice is to ignore this solicitation. Keep your donations at home for the time being. Nothing from this fund raising promotion comes to our local level so you would not have any control on how it is spent.

Give me a call if you have any questions.
(830) 792-4232
George Keller
Gillespie County Chair

Fredericksburg City Council Update

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I did a little analysis of the past few Election Cycles for city Council in Fredericksburg, where my father is running. I ran some numbers on how many people in each election cast just 1 vote (even though they are allotted 2). This assumes that there are few to no ballots cast with 0 votes on them, which would otherwise put in a margin of error. I've cut and pasted the interesting trends here, but if anyone wants the original file, leave a comment.

Year 1999
Voters 663
% 1 Vote 16.89%

Year 2000
Voters 1202
% 1 Vote 22.21%

Year 2001
Voters 715
% 1 Vote 19.58%

Year 2003
Voters 470
% 1 Vote 24.47%

Year 2004
Voters 819
% 1 Vote 40.17%

My analysis is that I believe traditionally Fredericksburg CC Elections have 20% of the electorate that votes for one candidate out of strategy in any given year. I believe that bump up in 2003 to about 25% is due to the entrance of Melodi who was a Tax Protest candidate.

Her run in 2004 may also help count for the high 40% rate but I now believe (contrary to before) that the high 2004 level is not due to simply Melodi's Anit-Tax forces, but also MacWithey's entrance into the race which changed the dynamic of City Council elections. As someone outside of the usual base of voters, he probably brought in a whole new cross-section of voters, many who didn't know the 'traditional' candidates or were encouraged to cast one vote for MacWithey, since his electoral strategy didn't depend so much upon the old formula.

I would say, with Francis out of the race, two 'traditional' candidates, and the fact that Tom Musselman knows many of the traditional voters (as well as many new ones) would make it seem like the 1 Vote group wouldn't be as high this year, but at the same time, I believe that the Musselman campaign has/will have contacted more people than in past year, due to the existence of an actual campaign structure, advertising, outreach, and the upcoming GOTV efforts. I feel an increase in voters helps Musselman and will be more likely to increase the 1 Vote Cast share.

NOTES: Fredericksburg City Council races have not run above 13% turnout in recent years, with some years being as low at 7% (there are about 7000 registered voters). In addition, all seats are at large, and there are no run-offs... the top two vote getters are elected. This is why the 1 Vote strategy can be beneficial because if there are three candidates, with the top one being a high voter getter, anyone casting dual votes for the 2nd and 3rd place candidates are not actually helping the 3rd place candidate, since they move up in tandem but still always the same number of votes below the 2nd place candidate. Therefore, core supporters of any candidate should be encouraged to cast 1 vote to have the greatest effect.

Preventing Future Refinery Disasters

By Byron LaMasters

We're just learning the first details of the possible causes of the BP Oil Refinery disaster in Texas City this past Wednesday. State and federal investigators will surely spend a great deal of time in the upcoming weeks and months figuring out what exactly happened, but one point is worth noting now. The workers in the plant were contractors as opposed to union members. The New York Times pointed to the possible problems that this may lead to in an article on Friday:

Allan Jamail, an official with Pipefitters Union Local 211 in Houston, was quick to point to nonunion labor as the problem. Mr. Jamail said that refineries across Texas had become more dangerous as companies increasingly turned to nonunion contractors to do difficult construction and maintenance work. He said nonunion workers "aren't as well-trained" and did not have the job security to raise safety concerns with managers.

BP officials said that all 15 workers killed were believed to have been contractors, not BP employees. The morning before the blast, 2,200 of the 3,300 workers at the plant were contractors, they said.

We all certainly have great sympathy for the victims of the BP tragedy and their families, and we should all work together to prevent such tragedies from happening in the future. One of the easiest steps towards that goal is to ensure that the workers in dangerous refinery environments are well-trained professionals with the job security necessary to prevent overwork and hazardous conditions that often cause accidents and tragedies. Unions provide these critical safety measures, and incidents such as this ought to give governments and corporations pause before endorsing union-busting tactics that too often put the corporation's bottom line ahead of worker safety.

Tom Musselman for Fredericksburg City Council

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Just yesterday, my father Tom Musselman officially filed to run for the City Council of Fredericksburg, Texas. I have been working for the last day on his campaign website, part of his efforts to better connect with the citizens of Fredericksburg. I invite you to check it out at www.TomMusselman.com. Read the bio, keep up with the latest news, and also, if you live in Fredericksburg, please Join the campaign!

If you know people that live in the city, please forward the website to them. If you have a blog, please link to it in order to get his rankings a bit higher when people go to look for it on the web. He has to compete with my own name as it is right now.

Tom Musselman for Fredericksburg City Council

We will have a blogad up here on Burnt Orange within the week and I'll be keeping you up to date with news on the campaign. The filing photos should be ready in the next day or two. Ads are already running on the air and the first print ad will be in this week's Wednesday paper.

Jeff Ortiz For City Council (of Nederland that is)

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

The youngest candidate for a city council in Texas at the age of 22 announced his bid today, for the city of Nederland. He's been building up to this for a while, so go check out his website, he's got some new press stories over there.

Supersized Wal-Marts and Accordians

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Of note on my road here at home (Friendship Lane, I kid you not) the Super Wal-Mart is being built just across from the old one. So you can imagine part of the daily excitement that is my life now, is walking 300 yards down the road to check on its progress. And of course that means I'm going to share it with you.

The long wall there is the back wall. The road is Friendship "Lane" (4 lanes) and the box in the distance is the old Wal-Mart. If you click on the pic, you will get a bigger one. Here is an image of the inside of the new structure from the other direction.

And below is the entertainment we had at our Gillespie County Democrats Christmas Party. Can you tell we are Fredericksburg Democrats? I love it.

Weekday Weblinks

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

Kinky Friedman, writer, singer, performer, has of course mentioned that he would like to run as an Independent for Texas Governor in 2006. He would officially announce at the beginning of February 2005, and have to file paperwork at the beginning of 2006. In addition, he will need to gather 45,540 signatures from those that havn't voted in either the 2006 Democratic or Republican Primaries (Independents, in Texas terms, since we have no partisan voter registration).

Kinky lives near my hometown of Fredericksburg out towards Kerrville in the Hill Country where his ranch is. His website is www.kinkyfriedman.com If he was on the ballot, I'm not sure if it would have much of an electoral impact to tell you the truth. Granted his politics (I believe) are to the left, but he might get as many votes from disguntled Republicans who can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrats than from lefties that won't be happy with whatever nominee our state party puts on the chopping block.

If you are bored or depressed and want to read another new and very good story about Montana Democrats winning in their state, read this Washington Monthly article.

We're No. 1!

By Nathan Nance

Guest post by Nate Nance

Texas is still number one in executions. Even without W at the helm our state got around to killing 23 people, which is one less than last year, but about average for the past decade. And oh yeah:

The Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles, also a target of death penalty critics, recommended in May that mentally ill convicted murderer Kelsey Patterson be spared. Gov. Rick Perry, however, rejected the recommendation and Patterson was executed.

Gov. Goodhair deciding what is just and fair.

This is a guest post by Nathan Nance. Nate is a sports/news clerk at the Waco Tribune-Herald and writer/editor of Common Sense a Texas-based Democratic Web log. He can be reached at nate_nance@yahoo.com