Burnt Orange Report

You know Strayhorn is so straight up when she talks and is pro-children, pro-education, she would likely take Democratic votes over to the Republican primary just because Dems want to get rid of Perry so badly. He is a real BIG jerk.

HOUSE CAMPAIGNS people, HOUSE CAMPAIGNS - and of course - Kinky for Gov.

But from what I've gathered, Dems would rather have Perry to face in the general to have an outright shot of taking the Gov's mansion. So crossover voting to help KBH or Carol-4 Names (it is only 4 last names now right?) doesn't help us, only moderate the evil that is the Texas GOP.

If we want to pick up HD47 and HD48 we need Rick Perry on the ballot

I got an email from Austin Toll Party saying that I was invited by Strayhorn to a "big" announcement (forgot the date) and to bring family and friends (food would be provided - that will get'm there)

I question if KBH can beat Strayhorn in the primary. Strayhorn is in Texas - KBH is in Washington - KBH is the "outsider". She may be a Tx senator but she's not seen as making as big a differencec in Texas as Strayhorn. Also - Strayhorns bold, direct, no-hold-barred honesty certainly has it's appeal.

In any case - Governor Good Hair will be gone and that is what matters first.

Rick Perry's biggest wet dream is both Hutchison and Srayhorn against him in a primary. Strayhorn will siphon votes directly from Hutchison, who will make the run-off with Perry, who will then crush her by getting his extremists back out to vote.

But all of you are assuming Strayhorn will announce for Governor on Saturday. What if she is just going to announce for re-election as Comptroller? Or, better yet, surprise everyone and announce for Lt. Governor?

Strayhorn for LTG would be good and bad. I like the possibility of her knocking out Dewhurst, but I would rather see Perry in the General election, and the best chance of that happening is having KBH and Strayhorn split their votes and have Perry pull through in a primary run-off.

We want Perry as the face on the GOP ticket in November, because that's how Dems will have the best chance to win the Governor's race and pick up some more House seats. If KBH or Strayhorn is front and center, every Dem down-ticket would have to run a different kind of message, b/c no Dem could attack either of them on experience OR on being real right-wing.

Is there anyone lined up to run against Dewhurst?

Dewhurst will run for US Senate. He wanted to in 2002 and he has repeatedly said that his ultimate goal is to serve in the US Senate. The seat is opening up and he will take it. KBH said repeatedly when she was running originally (and has started mentioning again) that she would only run for two full terms. That means no more after this year. The chances of KBH not running for governor are near 0%, her chances of leaving the senate are near 100%.

And nobody shuts down a city block and invites thousands of people out to their announcement for reelection to her third term as Comptroller of General Accounts. She is running for governor. Down the line she might switch to Lt. Gov, but this spectacle seems to lock her into this race. 2006 looks to be the year when everyone runs for what they wanted to run for in 2002-- Dewhurst for Senate, KBH and Strayhorn for Gov, Abbott for Lt. Gov and so on.

And we can absolutely win the governor's mansion this year. If Vilsack could win in 1998 in Iowa (which had gone 32 years without a Democratic governor, not the paltry 12 years we'll have here), if Sebelius could win in Kansas, Napalitano in Arizona, Scweitzer in Montana, etc. we can certainly win in a state that is more than 50% ethnic minority and largely working class. As long as we nominate someone who reflects Texas values on social issues and populist tradition on the kitchen table issues of the day, we'll win.

We are also going to be running against Perry. On KBH, pro-choice women don't freaking win Texas GOP primaries. The only reason she is in the senate now is because she didn't have to run in a primary-- she was elected in a special election. She was BOOED OFF STAGE at the 1994 Texas GOP Convention. Perry will dredge up that footage, he'll get her public statements on abortion and he will spend $15 million calling her a baby-killing liberal and people will believe it. Strayhorn thinks the way to win a Republican primary in this state is by running to the left and pushing for tax increases. She's about to get a horrifying wake up call. Perry will win the nomination-- period.

If we want to win the Governorship, it's not by counting on the fact that the state is 50% ethnic minority. If you look at who actually votes, the people who actually turn out in a Texas statewide election are 70% white Christians.

I think the point about Texas having 50% minority is that, if we don't just assume they'll vote for us, most minority groups would side with Democrats, provided we deliver a succinct, upfront message about why we better reflect their values and their interests. We had a "dream ticket" in 2002, but it was just that--a dream. In elections, dreams only come true with effective GOTV campaigns centered around a coherent message.

To steal from a guy much smarter than me, Democrats can win if we run a campaign about fairness, opportunity, responsibility, and progress. We want to work together to fight for change--Republicans want to fight with each other for power. When it comes to schools, taxes, and health care, Democrats want to work together for all Texans, and we believe we can achieve our goals without resigning ourselves to intolerance and corruption.

In the e-mail I got, Strayhorn personally asked me to "BE HERE for a MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT" this Saturday, 12:15, at 16th and Congress.

She said there'd be hotdogs.

Hot dogs definitely = announcing for governor.

I have always had this secret crush on Strayhorn just because she is kooky and one tough grandma. Plus, she is not as far-right and self serving as Perry. I have even thought about voting for her if she were to get into the race. But, then, I am reminded of who her son is- Scott McClellan- the press voice of Bush. Any thoughts on how this plays into it? Does the White House Press Secretary come out and say the Texas Republican party must back the sitting governor and stay strong, or does he support his mom?

PS.. I will find it hard to sleep tonight because Perry is in El Paso doing his evil deeds.