Burnt Orange Report

Huge South Dallas Opposition Fuels Strong Mayor Defeat

By Byron LaMasters

I spent some time playing with the turnout numbers earlier today in the Dallas strong mayor race. The results? There are two major reasons for the defeat.

First, voters in north Dallas did not turn out very heavily for the Blackwood proposal. Of the north Dallas districts most likely to vote for a strong mayor proposal, three saw a decreased turnout from 2003 - Districts 9, 10 and 13.

Second, south Dallas and the African-American community turned out very heavily against the strong mayor proposal. The opposition in the Black community was fueled by a distrust of mayor Laura Miller regarding her opposition to former mayor Ron Kirk and former Police Chief Terrell Bolton among other issues. In the four city council districts represented by African-Americans, turnout increased dramatically. In fact, the turnout in two of the southern sector districts (5 and 8) more than doubled from 2003.

In 2003 there was a mayoral election in Dallas between Laura Miller (a Democrat and the wife of former State Rep. Steve Wolens, D-Dallas) and Republican Mary Poss. Many majority African-American precincts voted for Mary Poss, but the turnout was low. This time, African-American voters had the opportunity to vote against Miller, a supporter of the strong-mayor proposal without voting for a Republican - and the turnout reflected this. Check out the extended entry for the turnout in various districts across the city.

Here is a look at the turnouts of the 2003 and 2005 Dallas city elections by city council district. Listed first is the district number. Listed second is the turnout in the 2003 city election that saw a contested mayoral election between Laura Miller and Mary Poss. Listed third is the turnout by council district in the 2005 election where the strong mayor proposal was rejected by city voters. Listed fourth is the location of the districts (also available here). Listed fifth is the vote change in turnout in each district between 2003 and 2005. Listed sixth is the percentage increase in turnout in each seat.

Seat	2003	2005	Loc.	Change	% Increase
1	1892	1897	SW Ctrl	5	0%
2	2349	2993	Central	644	27%
3	6976	7386	WSW	410	6%
4	6613	9610	South	2997	45%
5	4123	8822	South	4699	114%
6	1764	1518	West	-246	-12%
7	4921	6688	SE	1767	36%
8	3239	7118	South	3879	120%
9	10748	9646	NE	-1102	-11%
10	9287	8140	NE	-1147	-14%
11	5039	7027	North	1988	39%
12	6931	7798	North	867	13%
13	9105	9447	North	-342	-4%
14	8158	10138	Central	1980	24%

A map of the districts is available here. Several notes should be made.

Districts 2, 11, 12 and 14 had open-seat elections this year as the incumbent was term-limited. This clearly increased the turnout in those districts.

In 2003, District 3 had a high turnout due to a redistricting incumbent pairing. Also District 6 was a newly created seat in redistricting in 2003 which was open. The lowest turnout districts - 1, 2 and 6 are all Hispanic majority districts. All three have a large immigrant and foreign population that account for their low turnout. Also, districts 9 and 10 were open seat elections in 2003, which may account for their decrease in turnout in 2005.