April 19, 2005
Castro Leads San Antonio Mayoral Race
By Byron LaMasters
The poll is from last week, but I just noticed it today. Survey USA took a poll for the San Antonio mayoral race. Here's the results:
Castro - 43%
Hardberger - 28%
Schubert - 22%
Other/Undecided - 7%
Data Collected: 4/11/05 - 4/13/05; Geography, City of San Antonio; Sample Population, 443 Likely Voters; Margin of Error, 4.8%; Client, WOAI-TV San Antonio
Posted by Byron LaMasters at April 19, 2005 03:49 PM
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My opinion:
Castro is trending up. I bet undecideds break for him 2-1 over Phil & Carroll.
Given that and Castro's GOTV machine, I think he gets close to 50%+1, but he won't get there.
He should be in a run off with Phil. But I think a lot of those Schburt voters stay home in the run off. They don't care whether the liberal or the uber liberal wins.
The challenge for Castro is to get his voters out again, which should be harder for him than for Phil.
My bet: Castro gets 54% of the vote in the run off.
For some interesting comments on the SA race, check out recent LFT blog post: http://www.latinosfortexas.com/blog/index.php?p=97.
I don't know if your theories about the undecideds will work out that well. Undecideds typically break against incumbency and Castro and Schubert both have deep ties to the current council. Also, they are unlikely to break to either extreme (Castro, Schubert) thus making it likely that they will end up in the Hardberger camp. I think that it'll be Castro in the low-mid 40s, Hardberger in the low to mid 30s, Schubert in the mid to upper 20s. Schubert's supporters will probably be motivated by a dislike of Castro than anything else, and I suspect a large number will turn out and vote for Hardberger. This one is getting more interesting, but I think Hardberger is in a good spot right now.
