Burnt Orange Report

San Antonio Race For Mayor

By Andrew Dobbs

Yesterday I said that I would put up some information on the 2005 race for Mayor of San Antonio. I was just getting ready to track everything down when Cincinnatus of Politicks, Sports and Culture beat me to it. His post is a must read that will catch you up on all of the characters and issues in this race.

As in most big city races, race itself is a big issue. Julian Castro, the 30 year old twin brother of State Rep. Joaquin Castro, is leading the race as a result of his top billing among the city's majority Latino population. However, the two biggest turnouts for a city election (and the mayor and entire council are up for election every two years) in the last quarter century were just about 15%. That means that while the city is 2/3 minority- largely Latino with sizeable African-American base and a growing Asian population- the elections are often driven by upper class whites in Northwest SA. Two candidates are vying for their support- 70 year old former 4th Court of Appeals Cheif Justice Phil Hardberger (a Democrat), and Republican City Councilman Carroll Schubert.

Schubert is weakest, with virtually no minority support, and despite the low turnout, minority support is a big factor in these races. Hardberger is second, with a majority of support in no particular group, he performs well in all of them. Castro has overwhelming Latino support, a plurality of African Americans and a statistical tie for first among Asians (though Hardberger might gain ground there with a new endorsement from the Asian American Chamber of Commerce) and is in the lead right now. Still, no one has a majority as it stands and will almost certainly go to a runoff. Castro has one spot on lockdown it seems, Hardberger and Schubert are fighting for second place.

In the name of full disclosure, I must note that Hardberger's campaign manager is a dear friend of mine- Christian Archer. I must also note that the candidate who wins the "Dobbs Candidate Test"- a) are you a Democrat? and b) will you go on to bigger and better things?- is Julian Castro. I think that these two will likely end up in the runoff, and Hardberger is more likely to pick up Schubert supporters than Castro is. Castro is in an unenviable position right now in many ways- he has probably peaked in his popularity and has everything to lose. He can't tamp down expectations, and if Hardberger ends up within 10 points of him in the first round, he'll be hemmoraghing badly. I think that Hardberger might very well end up winning this one.

Still, the race is 8 weeks away and things are getting hot and heavy. Keep up with BOR for all your news on this vital race!