Burnt Orange Report

Note

By Jim Dallas

One thing I'm absolutely tired of is the perception that Democrats' "cultural problems" are issues which pertain specifically to the South, and modest changes will result in restored competitiveness throughout the entire South (as if it were a monolithic voting bloc!)

Look, about the only places in this great country where we might not be at risk of losing votes because of being identified with the cultural left are a few precincts in San Franscisco, New York, and Boston. This includes black precincts, white precincts, poor precincts, white precincts, holy-roller boxes and secular boxes. Just a small adjustment - a dozen votes in every precinct worth of adjustment - in message would have made the difference in Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa - and none of these states are in the South. And it was is those four states that John Kerry lost the presidency.

Yes, I think Mudcat Saunders has some good points; but I think the most apparent benefit of moderating on some cultural issues isn't that we'll start carrying Southern states. We won't: Southern conservatism runs a lot deeper than just "God, Gays, and Guns," and the assumption that we can win the South (outside of Florida, Virignia, and urban centers) just by appealing to economic populism is probably bunk.

The first sign we're doing something right will be that we'll be able to carry the rest of the country with substantial enough margins such that losing the South won't matter.

A more important concern than winning, though, is always the ultimate issue of morality. I very consciously used the term "risk" above because I think it accurately sums up my thinking: we take risks by standing up for what is right, but the risk itself doesn't justify inaction.

At any rate, "the South" is turning into a McGuffin: instead of thinking about maximizing our vote totals among those 12 or 13 voters per precinct that would have delivered us the White House; or even those places in the South which really are competitive now; we've fixated on an entire region of the country which is probably going to be rather hostile for the forseeable future. There's only so much good that "positioning" can do. In the end, the only effective way to return the South to the "D" column (on the national level) is community organization and shifting the entire national political discourse to the left, and not by treating this big amorphous monolithic South as just another special interest.

Kevin Drum has some thoughts here.

Also, read Ed Kilgore's take on this.