Burnt Orange Report

Jim, your math is off, s/b 53%(30+23). Then let's crow 60%(37+23) of voters are not Democrat. This one turns against you, and thanks for the link, helpful info.

To double post here. Y'all thought you had a chance in Arizona?

Well, having a Democratic gov. in Arizona shows us that there is a chance to bring that state into the blue team eventually.

The math is right. 37% of Texas voters are Republicans so thus 63% of Texas voters are not Republicans.

Assuming!? The line for Texas reads 37 - 30 - 23. Your error is assuming it started at 100. All of the state lines on this survey do not add to 100. You see, Florida adds to 95, California to 89, and Minnesota to 88. Don't ask me why, y'all found the survey and wanted to use it.

Byron and Jim, the survey either says what it says or to use your logic, 30% are Democratic "so thus 70% of Texas voters are not" Democrats. Either way you're down 7% with your statement here. Including independents goes both ways. Maybe they excluded the 'no answer' column?

The survey states that those declining to answer and those who indicated a party not rep. dem. or ind. were left off the survey results. Therefor you could take the remainder that does not add up to 100% and put them in the category "other or declined".
It is also important to note in Tx the error rate is +/- 2%points.
In any case, the title "63% of voters not republican" is correct.

Math for Dummies

100%-37%deny being republicans=63%not republicans.
The title makes no assumption about what the 63% are or how they will vote. Only that they do not i.d. themselves as republicans.

This was also a poll of registered voters. It does not say anything about the potential political leaning of potential voters who were unregistered when this survey was taken. If minorities represent the largest % of population who remain unregistered and one can assume the majority of minorities would vote for a democratic candidate over a republican one. This could be enough to swing blue.(this is hypothetical and based on anecdote, the real stats are out there, time does not permit me to research them now) The point is, there is real potential in a state where far less than 50% of the pop. identify themselves as repbulican.

Come on 'comeon'." 30% are Democratic "so thus 70% of Texas voters are not" Democrats. Either way you're down 7% with your statement here. Including independents goes both ways. Maybe they excluded the 'no answer' column?"
Posted by peter at February 21, 2005 06:33 AM

What's the point when you're faced with a higher negative. Don't you expect people to follow the link and read for themselves the results. A 'no answer' does not count in any part of this type of poll. One 'ass/u/me/s' a lot from that 'no answer' number. These individuals can be either Dem. or Rep. or none of you business here. It would be unfair to draw any representation from 'no answers'.

Let's forget the "Math for Dummies" tag here.

I did not use the excluded numbers. I only pointed out why the numbers do not add up to 100%.
And again the statement is about the % who i.d. themselves as republicans. that is 37% period. It does not matter what the remaining 10% identify or refuse to identify as. It still stands that 37% i.d. themselves as republicans and therefor 63% do not identify themselves as republicans.
Another way to look at this is that 33.3% of those who are willing to identify themselves as either republican, democrat, or independent, identify themselves as republican, therefor 66.7% of the remaining identify themselves as something other than republican in fact as either democrat or independent. This makes no assumptions about who independents will vote for, and does not make assumptions about those who decline to answer or those who identify with a party other than the two major parties or independent.
It says this
66.6% of those who identify themselves to one of the two major parties or independent do not identify themselves as republicans
and
of all individuals surveyed 63% did not identify themselves as republicans.
that's it. and yes that means 70% did not identify themselves as democrats, which does not mean that 63% did not identify themselves as republicans. That's it.

Just to argue the top of your last statement not the bottom. Using 90 for control (37+30+23), those willing to identify, it's 41% GOP, 33% DEM, 26% IND. OR 59% not Republican and 67% not Democratic. Any way you look at it Dems are in worse state than GOPers. Besides the poll dates are a little spread(11 months) and don't at all represent the way America voted last November. To me it's of little use, why post it?