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January 18, 2005

Rosenburg fighting for 3rd?

By Karl-Thomas Musselman

I like Simon Rosenburg. I met him in Atlanta and was impressed by his thoughts and ideas. If he wins the DNC race, I'll be happy. If he loses, I hope that he's brought on board anyways.

His latest e-mail sounds like something from someone still behind in the race. And while he is, I don't know if I'm supposed to get that impression...

Dear Karl-Thomas,

Our very strong week last week and good performances at the first two regional DNC meetings have put us in the upper tier of candidates to be the next DNC Chair.

"Dean, Frost and Rosenberg have been cited most often as front-runners among party leaders." ...

Last week our endorsements ran from Alaska to Alabama to New York to California, including leaders from all parts of the party and from across the country. Chris Heinz joined us from the Kerry world, former DNC Chair Joe Andrew from the Gore world, Mike McCurry and Christine Varney from the Clinton world and of course Joe Trippi joined us from the Dean campaign. Ron Brown's former Chief of Staff Rob Stein also came aboard. Ben Chandler, Artur Davis, Jonathan Miller and Michael Thurmond joined us from the South; Tony Knowles, Loretta Sanchez and Adam Smith from the West; Joe Andrew from the Midwest; and Adolpho Carrion and Jack Markell joined from the East. And this is only the beginning.

Endorsements do not elect a DNC chair, DNC votes do. Maybe in their respective states, it will make those DNC delegations look at Rosenberg. Unless they are calling members in support...

And as to the Hotline Poll, here is the campaign's Spin on it (even if they claim to No Spine Zone it)...

Finally, we learned a few things from a "poll" conducted by Hotline that ran last Friday. Stripping away the spin, the data shows that three-quarters of all DNC members are undecided; this race is wide open. Of the quarter that have a preference, those candidates with the best name ID -- unsurprisingly -- are doing the best during this early stage, yet they too have only a tiny fraction of the votes needed to win (as little as 15 percent). And despite my relative late entry into the race and the fact that the poll was conducted before all of last week's endorsements were unveiled, I am tied for third. The bottom line is: we are in a strong position to win this race.

It is true that the race may be open, but I don't know if anything is fundamentally changing as these DNC meeetings go on. People know Dean, old-partyline-steppers are slowly getting the drift that Frost is "the man" even if he doesn't excite, and the rest are left scrambling to put together a come from behind second/third choice strategy, because I'm sure they are seeing that they aren't going to come out ahead of Dean on the early ballot rounds.

Should be fun to watch as always, and maybe Hotline will throw us another poll conducted after the Regional Caucuses.

Posted by Karl-Thomas Musselman at January 18, 2005 03:30 PM | TrackBack

Comments

It's interesting that Joe Andrew is mentioned twice... I guess that he's important. heh.

And the last time we all heard the phrase, a "three-way tie for third" was when Joe Lieberman was declaring that he had Joementum after coming in a fifth (but really a three-way tie for third) in New Hampshire, while the rest of us laughed.

Posted by: Byron L at January 18, 2005 04:37 PM

I know that some people have the pipe dream of a split leadership at the DNC (Rosenberg/Dean, whatever). It won't happen, but what I really do hope is that whoever wins, finds a place for some of these other guys to fit in and work, be it Rosenberg or Fowler. (kinda hard to "fit" Dean in if he doesn't win thought, he'll go back to DFA in that case)

Also, how much do you want to bet that if Dean did win, that there would be some kinda of bat or fundraising e-mail announcing the news with the point of raising money as a statement of "commitment to the net"?

Posted by: Karl-T at January 18, 2005 04:42 PM

I was thinking the same thing the other day...three DNC members from KY did not show up to the state central committee meeting to select the new chairman

Posted by: Daniel at January 18, 2005 06:31 PM

If Dean wins, then the Democratic Party will be pilloried as Dean's political vehicle. Despite Dean's statement that he will limit himself to a subsidiary party-building role and leave it to other people to define the Party's message, his oversized ego probably will lead him to voice his opinions on every subject under the sun. It will be Dean defining the Party's message, not members of Congress, governors or other prominent political figures. Moreover, Dean runs a one-man operation. He would not share the leadership of the Democratic Party with anybody else, not Rosenberg or Fowler. If Dean did not dismantle DFA, the lines between DFA and the Democratic Party probably would become blurred. Moreover, are we to really believe Dean's pledge that he would not run for President if he wins his DNC bid? Who knows?

I personally would prefer Simon Rosenberg, Martin Frost, Tim Roemer, or Wellington Web to Howard Dean, the George McGovern or Gene McCarthy of our times. If we end up with Dean, the Party will lurch to the Left. Our chances to compete on a 50-state basis will be diminished, not bolstered. Our national security credentials will also be diminished, even among many people who opposed the Iraq invasion, as I most certainly did.

Posted by: Scoop Jackson Democrat at January 20, 2005 05:29 PM

Rosenberg still does have a chance, albeit probably not a great one. If the supporters of either Dean or Frost ultimately see that they will not have nearly enough votes, then they may start peeling away.

Posted by: Scoop Jackson Democrat at January 20, 2005 05:33 PM

Repeat those Republican talking points like a good boy!

Posted by: Karl-T at January 20, 2005 10:39 PM

Karl T. -- Republican talking points? Somehow, I don't think so. I voted for Carter (1976 and 1980), Mondale (1984), Dukakis (1988), Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004). I preferred Scoop Jackson or Hubert H. Humphrey in 1976 and was thoroughly disenchanted with Carter by 1980. I favored Glenn over Mondale, and voted for Gore in the 1988 primaries. I was happy enough with Clinton and Gore. I would have preferred Lieberman, Graham, Edwards or even Clark to Kerry. I most certainly did not like Dean. However, I am willing to bet that I have cast more votes for Democratic candidates in my life than you have. In 2004, I gave to numerous Democratic Senate and House candidates, Kerry-Edwards, the DNC and even ACT and MoveOn.Org. Since 1976, I have always supported the nominee of the Democratic Party, but that does not mean that I am happy with current trends in the Democratic Party. Moreover, I believe that I have as much right to express my opinions as anyone else at the grass roots level in the Party.

I will tell you what bothers me. It is that I have had to choose between the Democratic nominees that I named above and the Republican opposition, even though the only nominees that I liked were Clinton and Gore. I wish that the Democratic Party would return to the core values that it once embraced, so that I could feel as good about voting Democratic for President as my Parents and Grandparents did when they voted for FDR, Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy, LBJ and Hubert Horatio Humphrey.

If that makes me a Republican, then so be it. I don't think that I am the only Democrat who is disillusioned with the Democratic Party and abhors Howard Dean, or at least what he would seem to represent. Take a look at Taegan Goddard Political Wire. According to a new WSJ/NBC News Poll, only some 27% of Democrats have a favorable impression of Dean. This is the man who is the frontrunner to become new DNC chairman? God help the Democratic Party. Dean's favorability ratings apparently have declined almost by half since he started his Presidential campaign.

Posted by: Scoop Jackson Democrat at January 21, 2005 03:05 PM

I would be reasonably happy with Rosenberg, Webb, Frost, or Roemer. I could even grudgingly accept Leland as DNC Chairman, even though the Ohio Democratic Party is in a mess. I will be quite upset if Dean makes it. However, this is a contest and we will just have to see who makes and how they perform.

Posted by: Scoop Jackson Democrat at January 21, 2005 03:10 PM
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