Burnt Orange Report

The Club for Growth lost this race for the GOP. Instead of backing Waco-based, attractive GOP candidate Dot Snyder in the primary, they backed Wohlgemuth- from a far-flung, less-populated edge of the district who looks like a brownshirt. Snyder was no less conservative than Wohlgemuth, she just looked less extreme. If Snyder had been nominated, she would have run even in McLellan County and wiped the floor with Edwards.

Look for Snyder to try her luck again in 2006, and this time, Edwards probably won't be as lucky. If I were him, I'd run for something statewide- like U.S. Senate perchance...

I pretty much agree. Snyder was sort of the favored coming into the race with a new gerrymandered district. The Wohlgemonster just outspent her to look more Republican in a Republican district. The rest of us here in McLennan county are more moderate. If a less-extremist GOP candidate shows up, Chet will have a real fight.

Fortunately, I don't think there's much chance of that. The GOP's alignment is trending toward extremism. The fact that Club for Growth supported Arlene when Snyder was obviously a winner is proof of that. The Republicans have an ideal, the Tom Coburns, who they want to get elected.

Hopefully, (and I say that only as political scientist, not as someone who lives here) this alignment will be almost complete by the 2006 midterms. The Republicans will field an even more extreme candidate and spend even more money to try and get them elected. And that will be true of the party generally, which is why I seriously think we Dems can make gains in the House.

Give it up for Chet, the guy is a winner. This is an impressive win since huge chunks are brand new. While i agree that a Waco republican will give him more trouble it is also true that 2 years will give him a chance to cement himself with these new voters.

I agree that Dot Snyder would have given him more trouble. She seemed like a much more likeable candidate, and would have gotten the McLennan county vote.

On the other hand, the mid-term elections are generally not friendly to the party in power, especially the mid-terms 6 years in. So if the tide is turning against Republicans in 2 years, that might help too. I don't know what the population trends are but I suspect that the Waco area is the fastest growing area of the district.

One point to make that hasn't been made here. While Bush ran far ahead of Kerry in McLennan Co, the fact is that Waco itself is a fairly Democratic city. Waco has a Democratic mayor and various other Democrats in elected office. What happened is that being the home town boy, Bush ran well among Waco Democrats who otherwise voted Democratic down ticket. So the spread between Kerry and Chet Edwards in McLennan Co is just as easily explained by Bush's popularity among Waco Dems, as it is by Chet's popularity among Waco GOPers.

Chet is one smart guy. As someone who used to live in Bell County, which was part of his district until this year, I've seen him hold off against a continual Republican onslaught. In the last election he *did* run against a strong Waco Republican, Farley, and he also had to cope with the fact that his then-district included mostly Republican Bell County as well as a large chunk of Republican Williamson County, yet he won. He's hardly ever had an easy election in which he could coast. He wins because, as hokey as this may sound, he really focuses on serving his constituents. He held on to his old district by bringing home the bacon for Ft. Hood. Now he's in a good position to do the same for Texas A&M. Especially with his latest win, he's probably the premier example of a Texas Democrat who's managed to withstand the Republican tide.

You're right Byron.

Also remember that Chet worked for former Congressman Olin Tiger Teague, who represented an area from the Brazos Valley to DFW. The 60+ demographic remembers things like that.

Also, Dot Snyder is a moderate. If she is the nominee in 06 Chet will beat her. She won't get the Johnson County support she needs. Chet will do better than the 2002 numbers in McLennan because Sanchez drove the whole ticket down, particularly in places like McLennan. Only someone like former State Senator David Sibley or current Senator Kip Averitt both R-Waco, or possibly Senator Steve Ogden R-Aggieland, would give Chet a even tougher race than this one.