Burnt Orange Report

Bush Losing (or Maybe Winning) Expectations Game

By Andrew Dobbs

Perhaps the smartest thing Bush has ever said is that he is the "master of low expectations." Bush comes across as the likeable but not terribly competent frat guy- someone you like to get trashed with but you wouldn't let him date your sister. As a result when he comes up against the hot shot academic/political professional and manages not to shit his pants, he wins. People expected him to look like a vegetable against Gore and when he looked like he was a sentient being he was christened the winner. He was expected to be tied up in knots by Ann Richards and when he wasn't, he won. This isn't a criticism of Bush, but more of the observers of the political world. Bush thrives off of their contempt.

But now the tables have turned it appears. Political Wire reports that a soon-to-be- published Time Magazine poll shows 44% expect Bush to win the upcoming debates while only 32% expect Kerry to win. For the first time in his life Bush is going into a debate expected to thrash his opponent. Now if Kerry can just keep up with him voters will be likely to name him the winner.

Still, if Bush performs at his usual folksy level and Kerry comes in there with a head of nuance and longwindedness Bush will throroughly thrash Kerry- he already was expected to win and he confirmed those suspicions, thus striking a deathblow to Kerry.

Kerry needs to be on his A game and needs to strike some blows on Bush. He is in a great position right now and K-E needs to keep lowering Kerry's expectations. If he comes out and gets Bush mixed up a couple of times, he'll win the debates and he'll have a very good shot at winning 270+ in November.

My suggested line- when Bush calls Kerry a flip flopper or lauds his own resoluteness, Kerry needs to say- "I understand where the President is coming from. He appears very resolute on TV. But let me be very clear and decisive about one thing right now- if 3 years into my presidency I am where he is right now and 1.6 million jobs have been lost and people who do have jobs are making less than before I became president, if 5 million fewer people have healh care and 4 million more people are in poverty, if college is more expensive and 1100 more soldiers are dead in a war no one can explain why we are fighting, if the deficit is at a record level and if a majority of people think that things are going to be worse for their children than it is for them, I'll 'flip flop' and try something new."

Booya!