Burnt Orange Report

When the "bounce poll" doesn’t really measure the bounce

By Byron LaMasters

How can the Newsweek Poll out today that claims to measure the “bounce” Kerry received out of the convention actually measure the bounce when half of the poll was taken before the acceptance speech. A fair “bounce poll” would poll from Friday through Sunday after the Thursday acceptance speech, but this poll was done on Thursday (before the speech) and Friday. Not surprisingly, the results for Thursday and Friday are vastly different:

In interviews on Thursday, July 29-before the Kerry nomination acceptance speech-Kerry/Edwards received the support of 47 percent of registered voters, Bush/Cheney 45 percent and Nader/Camejo 2 percent, according to the Newsweek Poll. In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry/Edwards received 50 percent, Bush/Cheney 40 percent and Nader/Camejo 3 percent. In the two-way race, in interviews on July 29, Kerry/Edwards received 49 percent and Bush/Cheney 47 percent. On July 30, Kerry/Edwards got 54 percent and Bush/Cheney 41 percent, the poll shows.

Newsweek comes to the conclusion that Kerry had a two-to-four point bounce, based on the poll (two point bounce against Bush, four point bounce with Nader included). Before the convention, Newsweek had Kerry leading Bush by six points head-to-head, and Kerry led Bush by three points with Nader included. Thus, this poll giving Kerry an eight point lead over Bush head-to-head and a seven point lead with Nader included shows a two-to-four point bounce. But does a poll partially taken before the acceptance speech was given really qualify as part of a poll measuring the bounce? I think not.

The only relevant information from this poll regarding a convention bounce is that of the poll data from Friday. And that data confirms my belief that Kerry’s speech was a home run. The polling for Friday (presumably with a larger margin of error, I’ll admit) shows Kerry with a ten point lead with Nader included and a thirteen point lead head-to-head. Thus, the early polling data here shows a Kerry post-convention bounce of about seven points (both head-to-head and with Nader included). If that holds up, the Kerry folks ought to be very pleased . In a polarized electorate where less than twenty percent of the voters are truly up for grabs, a seven point bounce would be quite a feat.