Burnt Orange Report

Charlie Cook: "Bush will Lose"

By Byron LaMasters

While I was in the Fleet Center today, I picked up a print copy of the National Journal Convention Daily. Charlie Cook had perhaps the most insightful analysis of the recent polls that I've seen in awhile. Cook took the combined results of the last four AP polls on the national presidential race, so that he could attain a large enough sample size of undecided voters to make some educated observation. Cook's findings were quite significant. He found that undecided voters had decidedly negative opinions of America under the Bush administration. Undecideds broke 18/75 on the right track / wrong track question (compared to 41/56 overall). Undecideds also broke 22/69 on approve / disapproval of President Bush's job performance. John Kerry supporters were even more likely to believe that America is on the wrong track and disapprove of President Bush, but overall, undecided voters were much closer on these two questions to Kerry voters than to Bush voters.

Thus, all Kerry has to do to win is to cross the threashold of acceptability to voters, whereas Bush must convince voters who already disapprove of him and think that the country is on the wrong track - that even though they may not like Bush, Kerry would be worse. It's a hard arguement to make, and it's why Bush has spend nearly $100 Million in attack ads against John Kerry. Why? It's his only chance to win. If this election is about George W. Bush and his record as President - Bush will lose (unless Osama is captured, Iraq is stabilized, gas prices return to normal, and the economy starts booming again - all of which would be great, but it won't happen). Democrats have a reason to be optimistic, but John Kerry is absolutely correct in his approach. A Bush bashing convention would be fun for the delegates, but it's not what undecided voters need to hear. They need to hear why John Kerry will make America safer and stronger - and that's what I'm expecting to hear a lot of this week.