May 16, 2004
Freefalling...
By Byron LaMasters
Bush's approval hit a new low today:
A Newsweek poll released Saturday put Bush's overall job approval at 42 percent, the lowest yet in that poll. Other recent survey have rated Bush in the mid-40s.
Kerry only leads Bush by one point in that polls, but others show Kerry moving ahead. Here's the most recent head-to-head:
Newsweek Poll. May 13-14, 2004. MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters):
Kerry 43, Bush 42, Nader 5.
Time/CNN Poll. May 12-13, 2004. Likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.1.
Kerry 51, Bush 46.
Rasmussen Reports, Daily Tracking Poll, May 16th, MOE +/- 3.
Kerry 46, Bush 44.
Anyway, it looks as if Kerry might be finally pulling ahead again. A lot of the pollsters wrote in their summaries that Bush support was softening, but voters didn't know enough about Kerry yet to make the final decision. Kerry's bio ads ought to help in that regard.
Update: Zogby weighs in today as well:
May 10-13, MOE +/-3.2.
Bush Approve: 42%, Disapprove 58%
Kerry 47%, Bush 42%.
Posted by Byron LaMasters at May 16, 2004 01:14 PM
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My sense is that Kerry is breaking...and even more encouraging, it doesn't seem like the Administration has a plan to move ahead.
I just wish this were more about people liking Kerry rather than disliking Bush.
I would say that I'm reading Kerry's Boston Globe bio.. and the more I learn about him... the more I like him. I think that the diversity of his life experiences make him perhaps the most qualified Democrat to run for president in recent history.
Check out the thread from the DailyKos on Bush and tobacco states. KY, TN, NC can all tighten up if Kerry can make his long-standing support for the tobacco bailout stick (Bush publicly opposed it again this week). TN and KY swung big in the tobacco counties in 2000 compared to 1996. The KY and TN numbers were off six points last week from January, and can continue to close. I'm not saying these are wins, but Bush is now defending turf.
Bit by but, cut by cut, the president is starting to bleed. His voters from last time, even in the border South, are finding things not to like. Some of these fellas who farm, have kids (or friends' kids) in the military, and are working two of these new jobs appear to be starting to ask if being a Baptist is more important than going bankrupt and fighting a contrived war.
Anybody know how Zogby got that big disapprove? Did he force the answer? There are usually 4-8% undecided/don't know on this question.
Read it. Perhaps Kerry should push the issue in ads in the next few weeks there to see if it's worth making a concentrated effort at the region this fall. Heck, if we have to have Bush on the defensive in the Carolina's then we're doing something right.
I don't trust Zogby this far out...I think he is trying to push more than poll, if you get my drift....
Yeah, well Zogby did basically go out on a limb and say that Kerry would win, so I'm a little leary of it, but they're all polls so make what you want of it.
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