Burnt Orange Report

What a great idea! If I didnt have a full time job, I would sign up too...

First, let me say I like Mark Strama. I worked with him when he served Senator Ellis and found him to be one of the Senate's best staffers.

But Representative Stick's district was NOT won by "several" statewide Democratic candidates in 2002, as you state. It was won by none. Here are the numbers:

HOUSE DISTRICT 50
DISTRICTS OF THE 78TH LEGISLATURE
2002 GENERAL

-- HOUSE DISTRICT 050 TOTALS -- PARTY ---DISTRICT---- STATE

U.S. SENATOR
CORNYN, JOHN R 20,336 52.0% 56.1%
KIRK, RON D 18,785 48.0% 43.9%

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 10
*DOGGETT, LLOYD D 18,272 100.0% 100.0%

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 21
*SMITH, LAMAR R 8,137 68.6% 74.2%
COURAGE, JOHN D 3,718 31.4% 25.8%

GOVERNOR
*PERRY, RICK R 22,597 59.8% 59.1%
SANCHEZ, TONY D 15,177 40.2% 40.9%

LT. GOVERNOR
DEWHURST, DAVID R 18,308 47.8% 52.9%
SHARP, JOHN D 19,993 52.2% 47.1%

ATTORNEY GENERAL
ABBOTT, GREG R 18,772 48.3% 58.0%
WATSON, KIRK D 20,128 51.7% 42.0%

COMPTROLLER
*RYLANDER, CAROLE KEETON R 25,948 68.5% 66.1%
AKINS, MARTY D 11,941 31.5% 33.9%

LAND COMMISSIONER
PATTERSON, JERRY R 19,756 55.3% 56.2%
BERNSEN, DAVID D 15,937 44.7% 43.8%

AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER
*COMBS, SUSAN R 23,647 64.1% 61.2%
RAMSAY, TOM D 13,250 35.9% 38.8%

RAILROAD COMMISSIONER 3
WILLIAMS, MICHAEL L. R 20,573 56.5% 56.9%
BOYLES, SHERRY D 15,859 43.5% 43.1%

CHIEF JUSTICE, SUPREME COURT
*PHILLIPS, TOM R 22,403 59.9% 58.7%
BAKER, RICHARD G. D 14,967 40.1% 41.3%

JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT PLACE 1
WAINWRIGHT, DALE R 20,705 56.6% 57.4%
PARSONS, JIM D 15,887 43.4% 42.6%

JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT PLACE 2
SCHNEIDER, MICHAEL (MIKE) R 20,470 55.5% 57.4%
YANEZ, LINDA D 16,384 44.5% 42.6%

JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT PLACE 4
SMITH, STEVEN WAYNE R 19,573 51.7% 54.1%
MIRABAL, MARGARET G. D 18,312 48.3% 45.9%

JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT PLACE 8
JEFFERSON, WALLACE B. R 21,395 56.6% 56.8%
MOODY, WILLIAM E. D 16,393 43.4% 43.2%

COURT OF CRIMINAL APPEALS PLACE 1
COCHRAN, CATHY R 21,786 59.6% 59.3%
MOLINA, J.R. D 14,777 40.4% 40.7%

COURT OF CRIMINAL APPEALS PLACE 2
*WOMACK, PAUL R 20,975 55.8% 57.4%
MONTGOMERY, PAT D 16,601 44.2% 42.6%

COURT OF CRIMINAL APPEALS PLACE 3
*PRICE, TOM R 21,029 59.2% 59.6%
BULL, JOHN W. D 14,479 40.8% 40.4%

STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION, DISTRICT 10
*THORNTON, CYNTHIA A. R 24,290 100.0% 100.0%

STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 14
BENTZIN, BEN R 20,946 55.0% 45.0%
*BARRIENTOS, GONZALO D 17,120 45.0% 55.0%

STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 50
STICK, JACK R 21,707 57.5% 57.5%
SYLVESTER, JAMES D 16,033 42.5% 42.5%

STATEWIDES INDEX D 43.4% 42.1%
R 56.6% 57.9%

TOTAL TURNOUT 39,160 54.0% 44.4%

TOTAL VOTER REGISTRATION 72,532

SPANISH SURNAME VOTER REGISTRATION 7,590 10.5% 20.4%

* INDICATES INCUMBENT CANDIDATE

thats wrong. i know for sure. both Sharp and Watson won it.

Let's see...John Sharp was a longtime State Comptroller who was popular with both Democrats and Republicans and Watson was a well known Mayor of Austinwith a lot of support in the business community. So it's no surprise that both did well in Travis County.

But no Republican incumbent has EVER lost House District 50 and it doesn't look like Rep. Stick will be the first.

Notgonnatell,

You contradict yourself:

"But Representative Stick's district was NOT won by "several" statewide Democratic candidates in 2002, as you state. It was won by none. Here are the numbers:"

Both John Sharp and Kirk Watson won district 50, as you correctly state:

"LT. GOVERNOR
DEWHURST, DAVID R 18,308 47.8% 52.9%
SHARP, JOHN D 19,993 52.2% 47.1%

ATTORNEY GENERAL
ABBOTT, GREG R 18,772 48.3% 58.0%
WATSON, KIRK D 20,128 51.7% 42.0%"

Any questions?

Texas Tammy,

District 50 was newly created in Austin during the 2001 legislative redistricting. So it's imposible to speak of any trends in the district when it's only been through one election cycle. As to the claim that Watson and Sharp were simply aberations, that's silly. Ron Kirk, who was the first candidate on the ballot in 2002 for Texas Democrats ran very well in the district as well:

U.S. SENATOR
CORNYN, JOHN (R) 20,336 52.0% 56.1%
KIRK, RON (D) 18,785 48.0% 43.9%

The fact of the matter is that district 50 is a very competetive swing district. It may lean Republican but it is highly competetive.

Poor, brainless Byron.

Yes, District 50 was newly created in Austin during the 2001 legislative redistricting. But no, it is NOT imposible to speak of any trends in the district. Actually the district has been through many election cycles and trends - or at least the precincts that make up HD 50 can be analyzed and voting patterns can be determined. That's what was done during redistricting. It's called Electoral Analysis.

So if you had access to the election returns for HD 50 Precincts for the years 1992-2000 (which I do), you would discover that no Republican incumbent candidate has ever lost in the Precincts that now comprise HD 50. Not one.

And in the last election, 15 statewide Republican candidates carried HD 50, only two Democrats narrowly won the District. I don't define that as "Competitive." So Ron Kirk got 48% (actually about 465 when you factor in minor party candidates) in the District. So what? The guy was born and raised here and practically ran here as a hometown boy. And he still LOST HD 50.

And Republicans have run better here in the last two presidential election years compared to the last two gubernatorial. And this is still Bush Country (HD 50 that is).

And the population growth patterns in the District are all favorable to the Republicans as the Precincts that vote heavily Republican (Northwest) are the one with all the population increases.

So you can sing a Dusty Springfield song about "wishin' and hopin' and thinkin," but HD 50 is Republican and it's the facts and the Election returns that back that up.

Apparently you aren't the political expert you claim to be Byron. Do you honestly think that all of the people in HD 50 just magically appeared in 2000? Of course there are trends. If you look at the nonpartisan Texas Legislative Council's website, they have results from 1996 on. The Republican Index as calculated by the Council never goes below 56.6%. It's a pretty easy calculation to make since the 2001 redistricting really only changed a few precicnts.

The folks in Pflugerville and most of the rest of what is now HD 50 haven't voted a Democrat to Represent them in more than 20 years (1982 was the last D they voted in). They elected Bob Richardson from 1985-1991, Susan Combs 1992-1996, Patti Keel 1996-1997, Terry Keel, 1997-2002, Jack Stick 2002-??

I can't imagine how you can think HD 50 getting more Democrat now.

"poor brainless byron"???? if he's so brainless go to another website.

The fact is that HD50 is a Republican lean, but b/c Strama is an excellent candidate who will be well funded, it will be very close.

The Austin Chronicle predicted in March that Strama AND Kelly White (HD48) would win their races. I agree with them.

their websites:

http://www.markstrama.com

http://www.votekellywhite.com

D -

Since you thought Mosley-Braun had a fighting chance, I'd say your prediction that Strama and White will win should be a ringing endorsement to unbiased folks that White & Strama will lose.

Also, if you need more reason Strama has a VERY steep climb to get close to Stick in November: "popular" Travis County DA Ronnie Earle lost HD 50 in 1996 & 2000 even though he won decisively countywide.

Good God. This post has attracted the idiot hack jobs. Although I should mention that "notgonnatell" emailed his post to me, and I emailed my response to him, and he apologized for the mistake. Apology accepted.

But where do I start with Trooper Cooper?

District 50 was newly created in 2001 redistricting. Because of population growth in Travis County, our state house delegation increased from five to six with redistricting. Previously there were four Democrats and one Republican. West Austin was represented by Terry Keel. His district was heavily Republican and saw a tremendous population increase in the 1990. South east Austin was represented by Glen Maxey. East Austin was represented by Dawnna Dukes, Central Austin by Elliott Naishtat and Ann Kitchen. Redistricting made two districts with a base in west Austin winnable by Republicans. District 50 was previously Dawnna Dukes district in east Austin (which I think included Pflugerville - at least part of it). In redistricting, her east Austin district was renumbered as district 46. District 50 as it exists now was created in 2001 by the Legislative Redistricting Board. It was created by the Board to have a Republican lean with suburban voters, but it also contains a sizeable minoriy population and moderate suburbanites making the district politically competative.

when did i say moseley braun had a fighting chance?

Byron L -

When the LRB went to redraw Travis County, Terry Keel had the most overpopulated district in the State, with more than double the ideal population of a normal district. Keel's district included not only western Travis County, it included Northwest Austin and Pflugerville. The LRB got 78% of the HD 50 population from the heavvily Republican voters in Keel's district.

Also, if you look at the precinct-level results in 1996 & 2000, you'll see in county elections (DA, Judges, Sheriff, Constables, JPs), the Republican candidates beat the Democrats in every race. Not only to they perform better, the Republicans do 10-12% better in HD 50 than they do countywide.

Finally, if the Democrats are so competetive in HD 50, why did James Sylvester, who had over $300,000 spent on his behalf only get 41.1% of the vote in an open seat?

D -

You were listed as Moseley-Braun's Austin Grassroots Organizer and on her meetup page. I just assumed you wouldn't be working for someone if you didn't think they would win.

I apologize if my assumption was incorrect.

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