Burnt Orange Report

April 17, 2004

Will Log Cabin Stand Up to Bush?

By Byron LaMasters

The Log Cabin Republicans will decide today whether to endorse President Bush for re-election at their convention in Los Angeles. The LA Times reports:

The country's best known group of gay Republicans opened its three-day national convention here, and as expected, virtually all issues took a back seat to one: same-sex marriage.
The gathering of the Log Cabin Republicans — as clean-cut and mostly white as an old-fashioned chamber of commerce — drew triple the number of attendees that the meeting attracted in the past.

Organizers attributed the jump, to some 300 participants, to President Bush's Feb. 24 endorsement of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. For many gay Republicans — who thought Bush's promise of "compassionate conservatism" would ensure them room in the GOP tent — the proposal was a slap in the face. They are now facing a difficult decision: Should they withhold their endorsement from Bush to make a point?

The group will wrestle with the endorsement question in an open session today.

"What we have here today is a sign that there is a culture war going on between us and the radical right," said Patrick Guerriero, Log Cabin executive director. "And this convention sends a message back to Washington, D.C., and to Republican leaders: We're here to stay, we're gonna win this battle and we're on the right side of history. We're a very conservative group on just about every issue, except we're not going to be treated as second-class citizens."

[...]

Although the group may delay a decision until closer to the Republican National Convention in late summer, plenty of questions need airing, said Guerriero. "What does the president stand for? To be against gay marriage is one thing. Well, what actually does he support?"

Although Log Cabin's national membership is about 10,000, club officials believe their endorsement matters.

"We know our voice on this is going to matter," said the group's political director, Christopher Barron. Citing exit polling of voters, he said, "One million gays and lesbians voted for Bush in 2000 — 60,000 alone in the state of Florida."

Bush won in Florida with a 537-vote margin over Vice President Al Gore.

Those numbers are derived from exit polls in the 2000 elections. Five percent of all 2000 voters self identified as gay or lesbian and the breakdown of their vote was something like 71% for Al Gore, 20% for George W. Bush and 4% for Ralph Nader. Thus, with an electorate of about 100 Million, 20% (Bush vote) of 5% (self identified gay vote) of that is one million. With the Federal Marriage Amendment backed by the Bush White House, it is not entirely unreasonable to suggest that President Bush will lose several hundred thousand gay votes (and Kerry could also benefit further by a larger gay turnout as well and possibly even from hundreds of thousands (to millions) of heterosexual friends and family members of gays and lesbians). Of course on the flip side, this may all lead to a larger turnout among conservatives who support the president on this. Anyway, back to the article. Log Cabin makes a good point. In a very close election, gays and lesbians count as swing voters in a few key states - notably Florida.

So will Log Cabin endorse Bush? I doubt that they will today. They may sell out later and endorse him, but based on their rhetoric, they may not. While I've never been a big fan of Log Cabin, they've been genuinely outraged by a President they thought they could trust not to succum to the far right wing. They've put their money where their mouth is by running one million dollars in ads attacking President Bush on the Federal Marriage Amendment.

I'll be looking for news of their non-endorsement.

Posted by Byron LaMasters at April 17, 2004 10:47 AM | TrackBack

Comments

I never have quite understood the Log Cabin phenomenon. Not to be Freudian, but I think they suffer from a derivation of battered woman's syndrome. "I know he treats me like that, but I just KNOW that he really does love me, and I can get him to change."

Wake up, wife beaters do not change because their victims put up with them and change them from within the home - it takes outside groups, like criminal enforcement. Likewise, the Republicans will not cease to harbor a base of bigotry as a result of forces from within. It will take tolerant people voting them out of office until they realize they cannot win the office of dog cather until they change.

Posted by: WhoMe? at April 17, 2004 02:16 PM

On the other hand, their strategy is like what the Green Party could do to the Democratic party. While it may not agree with many democrats, it could join the party and try to gain power through numbers to pull it one way or another. If there were simply enough organized gay republicans, then suddenly Rove pays attention because all he cares about is numbers and winning, not necessarily the actual 'republican vision' beyond simply taking over.

I think I might also compare the LCRs to the Democrats for Life people (pro-life dems). They are equally out of place on the issue with most party memebers but often times believe in everything else in the democratic party. They are also probably the democrats who are anti-death penalty and anti-abortion because of the life issue in both.

Posted by: Karl-T at April 17, 2004 10:19 PM

I wish it really was difficult to understand why
some gays persist in believing in the Republican
Party. Here are a few of the reasons why:
1)Oppressed peoples always identify with their
oppressors and seek to imitate them in one
fashion or another
2)The Republican financial voodoo of low taxes
and insane spending and let the next generation
worry about the deficit will always be
attractive to some segments of the population
of all races, ethnicities, and sexual
orientations just because it sounds so daring
and irresponsible.
3)Gays, like every other group in America, often
profess what Mark Twain called 'corn-pone
opinions' wherein they swallow the local
political propaganda without reflection. Where
I live (West Texas), many gays are Republican
simply because their Daddy and their brothers
and their doctor and the man who cuts their
lawn are Republican, and besides just because
the Republicans blame everything that goes wrong
on gays doesn't mean they really plan to do
damage to us...does it?
4)Some gays hate blacks and hispanics more than
than they love themselves.

Posted by: Bondage Bob at April 17, 2004 11:24 PM

Karl,

There is really a key difference between Greens/Democrats or ProLifers/Democrats and Gays/Republicans. Some Greens and ProLifers may not agree with parts of the Democratic party's positions, but the Democratic Party is not on a witchhunt to oppress these groups - there are honest differences of opinion.

With gays and Republicans, the later are actively oppressing the former, which makes the situation sui generis.

Posted by: WhoMe? at April 18, 2004 02:53 AM

I know a thing or two about Gay Republicans, having been one myself for a dozen or so years. I think it was because my mother fed me formula, denying me my proper nourishment. Having explained my own personal variation from normal behavior and thinking, a close friend who is no longer with us, told me once that he remained a Republican so that they would always know that Gays existed. He felt we would benefit if they were constantly reminded that we are not "someone else." And some people are just naturally suck-ups.

Posted by: r. Houston Bridges at April 18, 2004 05:41 PM

The LAT is (surprise) misleading...

I was at the convention and whether to endorse was never brought up. The focus of the discussion was whether to, what questions should be asked of the campaign and of the organization...

One key factor will be the tone of the convention. Is it Philly 2000 or Houston 1992?

The straw polls came out about 2-1 in favor of endorsement, but that will be left to the Board which will meet during the RNC in New York...I will be posting more about this tomorrow...

Posted by: boifromtroy at April 18, 2004 11:04 PM

News, Politics, and Fun From Deep in the Heart of Texas

April 17, 2004

Will Log Cabin Stand Up to Bush?

By Byron LaMasters