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March 23, 2004

Ralph Nader and Polling

By Byron LaMasters

One of the things that I've noticed in recent polling is that Ralph Nader has taken several points away from John Kerry in several national and state polls. Here are some examples:

The March 18th American Research Group poll for New Hampshire where Ralph Nader's ballot presence increases Bush's lead from two points to six points:


George W. Bush leads John Kerry 45% to 39% in New Hampshire, with Ralph Nader at 8%. Without Nader on the ballot, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 45%


The March 18-19 Newsweek Poll (via PollingReport.com), which shows a dead heat between Bush and Kerry (at 48%), but gives Bush a two point lead (45%-43%) when Ralph Nader is included.

Also on PollingReport.com is a CBS/New York Times poll taken from March 10-14 which gives Bush a three point lead in a matchup against Kerry (46%-43%), but an eight point lead (46%-38%) when Ralph Nader is included in the poll.

A March 21 Zogby Poll shows John Kerry with a two point lead over George W. Bush in a head-to-head matchup (48%-46%), but it shows a dead heat when Ralph Nader is thrown into the mix (46%-46%).

Does anyone see a trend? I do. Perhaps the most insightful statement by a pollster on Ralph Nader's impact in polling for the 2004 Presidential election is done by Rasmussen Reports. They released this statement on why they are not including Ralph Nader in their presidential tracking poll:


Over the past couple of weeks, many people have asked why we're not including Ralph Nader by name in our tracking poll (we do include "some other candidate").

The inquiries have become more intense since a CBS/NY Times poll found that Nader's presence might help President Bush.

[...]

These polls have caused some to conclude that Nader will once again play the role of spoiler for the Democratic contender.

We respectfully disagree.

There are two reasons we do not include Nader by name in our polling at this time.

First, it is not at all clear how many state ballots will include Nader this fall. If he is not on the ballot, he is not likely to be much of a factor.

Second, if the national election stays close, Ralph Nader will not attract the 5% to 7% level of support found in several recent polls. Given the experience of four years ago, many potential Nader supporters will ultimately decide to cast their vote for John Kerry.

[...]

Therefore, we have concluded that the most accurate measure of the Bush-Kerry race is to leave Nader's name out of the mix.

Having said that, Rasmussen Reports will continue to monitor the situation and consider adding Nader if he is able to obtain ballot access in at least 35-40 states. We will do the same for Libertarian candidates and others who are on that many state ballots.


I agree with Rasmussen Reports. Ralph Nader probably receives some support now from disaffected Dean and Kucinich supporters, but I find it hard to believe that the majority of current Nader supporters will not eventually end up in the Kerry camp. In my view, the best way to acheive this goal is two-fold. First, Dean, Kucinich and other progressive leaders need to come out unequivically for John Kerry. This is happening, and if for no other reason, the lefts distaste for George W. Bush should make this take relatively simple. Second, it is critical that Ralph Nader be denied ballot access in as many states as possible. Some might say that this goal thwarts the democratic process. I disagree. I think that by denying Nader ballot access in the majority of the states, it will be easier to unite the left behind John Kerry. It is clear to me from the polls above that when given the option to vote for Nader, some on the left will do so, however, if people are not given that option, most Nader voters will select John Kerry. Some may say that it shouldn't matter in Texas and other states where the outcome is already effectively decided. I disagree on that count as well. Texas has the earliest ballot signature deadline of any state in the union. If Nader fails to gain ballot access in Texas, the second largest state in the country, it will deal his campaign a major setback. By failing to gain ballot access in Texas, Nader's campaign will lose much of the small amount of relevency that it currently has. I believe that if Nader fails in Texas, his volunteers and supporters in other states will have less incentive to stay involved and active in the campaign. Anyway, the Texas filing deadline for an independent candidate for president is May 10. It requires somewhere in the neighborhood of 65,000 signatures of registered voters who did not vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary elections in March. I think that it's a rather safe bet to say that its unlikely that Ralph Nader will be on the ballot here in Texas.

Posted by Byron LaMasters at March 23, 2004 02:39 PM | TrackBack

Comments

You represent the height of arrogance. Does it strengthen the democratic process to actively attempt to keep ANY qualified American citizen off the ballot, in ANY state? Ralph Nader has EVERY RIGHT to pursue the established, legal channels to get on the ballot as a presidential candidate, as does anyone of us. Who in THE HELL do you think you are, especially as a purported "liberal," to deny, or even cast negative asperstions, on Nader, or ANYONE'S CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT to seek the necessary signatures to qualify to be on ANY state's ballot as a candiddate for president?

I'll lay 1000-to-1 odds that you had NO problem with Ross Perot's candidacy "throwing" the presidency to Bill Clinton. And Perot had every bit as much right to run as does Nader. It's just that this time you don't like the potential outcome of this third candidate on the ballot.

You would undermine the democratic process, and lamely defend every step of your pathetic arguments, just to have the candidate of your choice elected.

You shameless hypocrite.

Posted by: Gordon Ely at March 23, 2004 06:37 PM

Oh jeez, another drama queen.

Byron may have used an unfortunate choice of words by saying we should deny Nader ballot access, but I think his point is taken. TX liberals who would rather see Kerry elected than Bush better not give Nader any momentum, even if Kerry has no chance in TX.

Posted by: Jason Young at March 23, 2004 07:15 PM

Some of us are more concerned with the good of a nation that blowing up the ego of an egomaniac, Gordon.

Posted by: blue at March 23, 2004 08:26 PM

He's so late in the game that ballot access is unlikely anyway.

Furthermore, one must consider the methodology of the polls. What did the polls ask? "For whom would you vote?" or "Who do you want as president?" They are distinctly different questions, one pragmatic, the other idealistic.

Posted by: david at March 23, 2004 08:31 PM

Who do I think I am? Who does Ralph Nader think he is? Here's a man who's legacy of a great career will forever be overshadowed by his own personal ego trip in the 2000 election (and now maybe again in 2004). I think that Ralph Nader has every right to run for president... in the Democratic Primary. There's a reason why we have restrictions on ballot access. Who would want a ballot with 100 names on it? Every election shouldn't be a California-recall-like circus. While any American citizen (who meets all other requirements) should have the right to run for president, states have an obligation to their voters to require that only serious candidates with serious support have the oppotunity to earn a place on the ballot. It is my opinion that Ralph Nader is not a serious candidate bringing serious issues to the debate in 2004.

Posted by: Byron L at March 23, 2004 09:51 PM

Gordons arguments would have more merit if it weren't for the fact that he simply wants Nader to take votes from Kerry?

How exactly did Ross Perot throw the election to Clinton. It seems the guy who is arguing for change would hurt the guy who is arguing for change. 37% for an incumbent president is a vote of no confidence.

Posted by: Tek_XX at March 23, 2004 10:39 PM

Concerning the Perot "effect," every major political analyst across the political spectrum has concluded that Perot made NO difference in the outcome in any State, with the possible exception of Ohio, in the 1992 election. In effect, his voters came equally from those who would have voted for Bush or Clinton. It is an absolute LIE to say that Perot caused Bush to lose to Clinton. Perot in 1996 was a total non-factor.

Byron is absolutely right. Everyone has the right to run for office, but Nader needs to play by the rules. No political party would have him, and so he has to run as an independent, which is a very daunting task, as it should be. Otherwise, any loon (other than Nader) could run for office and the Presidential ballot would have 300 candidates on it, which is absurd. I personally hope the man does not qualify because a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush. It is important that he not get on the ballot. There is not a lot we can really do to thwart him, other than encourage people not to sign his petition. He has every right to try, but the odds are that he will fail.

Posted by: WhoMe? at March 24, 2004 01:04 AM

Any loon does run and his name is Larouche. Seriously, Nader is not a true threat this go round. No Green Party label, on the ballot in far fewer states, and all independent candidates decline in popularity in repeated runs (all apologies to E.V. Debs)
Perot did cut into the independents that might have gone Bush over Clinton in 92, but he was a non-factor in 96. Speaking only for myself, as a 20yo voter in 92 I went Perot simply for the folly and the idealistic pursuit of a legitimate third party/candidate. The 1-2 point drop Nader has seen since his announcement would tend to support that he will be a non-issue this time. However, can we please stop this "a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush" BS. A vote for Nader is a vote by a citizen of the United States who votes what they believe, not what they're told. Wish we had more like that around this state.

Posted by: AC at March 24, 2004 11:42 AM

Denying someone ballot access absolutely thwarts the democratic process. (As does paying too much attention to polls). You might want to consider the fact that the political spectrum is wider than "left" and "right". If the Nader candidacy goes under, *my* left-leaning vote will certainly not be redirected in Kerry's direction.

Posted by: CitizenX at March 24, 2004 01:30 PM

I think Perot clearly made the difference in some states that went for Clinton in '92. Montana and Colorado leap to mind, and probably also Georgia that went to him on a knife's edge. However, those states where Perot made that difference don't come close to negating Clinton's electoral college victory.

Posted by: Brittain33 at March 25, 2004 02:35 PM

CitizenX, What are your reasons for not voting for Kerry? And are you saying you would then vote for Bush?

Posted by: kang at May 13, 2004 05:04 PM
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