This Just In: John Kerry Handing Dean Iowa...
By Andrew Dobbs
How so, you ask? Well, as Taegan noted on Political Wire, the Houston Chronicle reports that John Kerry is aiming for second in Iowa.
The spot of runner-up is never highly coveted in beauty or other contests, but in the upcoming Iowa caucuses, second place is looking pretty good to Sen. John Kerry...
Polls have shown Kerry running third in Iowa, behind former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Missouri U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt -- a stark reversal from the same time last year, when Kerry was leading and Dean was polling in the single digits.
But last month, after Kerry mortgaged his home to fund the campaign, diverted staff and spending from New Hampshire to Iowa and intensified his advertising in Iowa, internal polls by the Dean campaign showed Kerry overtaking Gephardt among likely caucus participants.
With such a crowded field it is likely that in Iowa there will be only 1 or 2 candidates at most that can break the 15%. Furthermore, all of those Kucinich people (who are unlikely to have 15% and are a force to be reckoned with in dovish, pro-labor, populist Iowa), all of those Sharpton and Braun people and have to go somewhere- most of them will go to Dean. As a result, Dean probably now has 40% of the vote or so. If 2 candidates are fighting a knockdown dragout for the other 60%, neither is likely to beat Dean. Sure, if Kerry gets second that'll be a big story, but Dean will still walk away the winner.
The best way to stop Dean would be for Kerry to lower expectations publicly- "I'm hoping for a top 3 finish and then we can focus on NH"- and then try a half-hearted attempt at second and then throw his support to Gephardt. Instead, he's gunning for Gephardt and the two of them might split the vote enough that Dean wins big. Now, the story isn't "Look- Kerry finished second" it's "Howard Dean blew them out of the water." Going into NH, Clark is currently in second. If Kerry comes in 2nd in IA that'll hurt Clark, but if Dean wins big there, it'll bolster his "inevitability" and strengthen his NH finish, killing Kerry's chances. This will play into his hand and by January 28 both Gephardt and Kerry's gooses will be cooked with Howard Dean walking away with a big advantage in delegates.
All of this is to say that after January 28 it will be a 4 man race- Dean, Clark, Edwards and Lieberman- and after February 3 it'll be at most a two man race- Dean and Clark. Get ready for a bloody February and early March as they fight it out for the nomination, but hopefully when the dust clears they'll both be on the ticket despite declarations to the contrary.
Posted by Andrew Dobbs at January 8, 2004 09:19 AM
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If Howard Dean hasn't gotten the Kucinich, Braun people yet, they aren't going to go to him at the caucuses nor to Gephardt who has been a fixture for a long time. But they will go to either Kerry or Edwards. Add these up and it is possible for Kerry to have a strong second and challenge for first.
Admittedly only one survives to February, Kerry or Gephardt. For either campaign to go to February they have to do well in Jan. But you are right then that helps Dean in NH.
Dean still has the resources for the long haul. That's why Clark's late entry hurts him in terms of organizational muscle. Kerry has/d campaigns elsewhere and they could be reinflatable.
Lieberman is just a spoiler but if Edwards comes in 4th repeatedly he won't do well in February.
Do you really think Kerry can pull Kooch voters? I must admit, I only know one 'out of the closet' Kooch supporter, but he's a pretty big one. Runs the blog entitled "Something's Got to Break" that is found over to the right (I kinda drunkenly ruined his wedding). Anyways, I am certain he would never go to Kerry before the Convention and has great reservations about most of the other leaders.
Kooch people aren't pragmatists, generally. They're with him because they believe in his message and they're willing to fight for it until the acceptance speech is delivered. Kerry doesn't envigorate them, but I think they'll go for him in the general if nominated.
