Burnt Orange Report

Is Bill White unstoppable?

By Jim Dallas

The Houston Chronicle breaks down the exit poll data and shows a very broad base of support for White, and a very narrow one for Sanchez, concluding with the observation that only a scandal could bring White down in a runoff.

The way I see it, Sanchez is going to have a heck of his time broadening his appeal to even make the runoff competitive. He can try to get those Republicans who abandoned (and perhaps a third of Republicans backed White) him back; or he can try to solidify his support among Latinos (again, perhaps a third of Hispanics backed White instead of Sanchez).

The trouble is, that reaching out to one group may hurt his appeal in the other. The article makes the claim that Sanchez lost Latino votes he received in 2001 because, essentially, he's "too Republican." But if he presses to build a Latino (or Latino-Black coalition he may find himself making promises that could draw the ire of his conservative supporters.

The article also notes that many Republicans backed Bill White because they perceived him to be the more effective managerialist, and the more competent city leader. In short, White's positives are very high, and that drove crossover voting. It will also, I think, fuel heavy African-American turnout in favor of Bill White during the runoff.

Hence, the only way I see for Sanchez to build himself up is to keep trying (despite earlier failures) to tear Bill White down. Particularly, to persuade those crossover voters that they are wrong about White's competency.

So I'd be highly surprised if we didn't see some attempts by the Sanchez campaign to try to find something -- anything -- and turn it into a scandal over the course of the next month, because thats really their only chance (if they have one to begin with).