Alternate Reality 2004 (Back to the Future!)
By Jim Dallas
After reading about President Bush's frayed press conference today, and now that it seems patently obvious that the media are going to crucify Bush over Iraq, it seemed reasonable to construct a more optimistic prediction than the one I offered last week, which was based on a Sept. 2004 job approval rating in the low-to-mid 50s.
Assuming a presidential approval of 40 percent on Labor Day 2004 (which would put Dubya down in the range of his father in 1992, Carter in 1980, and Johnson in early 1968), the previously discussed model would suggest a comfortable Democratic win of about 374 Electoral Votes to 161 EVs for the President. With 331 solid/lean Democratic EVs, 118 solid/lean Republican EVs, and 86 tossups.
All the qualifications, cautions, warnings, and dissuasions from the last post notwithstanding, of course.
The big question mark about next year is how the president's job approval tracks. Despite the likelihood of slightly better economic conditions (albeit still a jobless recovery -- the economic consensus still pegs unemployment at or around 6 percent on Election Day), it seems that President Bush is simply losing the trust of the American people over Iraq (with Bush's situation being compared more and more to the "credibility gap" politics of Lyndon Johnson every day).
If it weren't for Bush's stratospheric approval among self-declared Republicans, his approval rating would be in negative territory (and its already darn close, with the latest polls this week showing a drop back down to about 50).
(The latest CNN/USA-Today/Gallup Poll)
Ironically, it may make more sense for Democrats to run a Dubya-style "honor and integrity" campaign instead of a Clintonian "it's the economy stupid" campaign next year.
(Of course, that's been conventional wisdom for sometime, but it's more relevant now than ever).
Posted by Jim Dallas at October 28, 2003 02:08 PM
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I'll call this shot now, regardless of the way things stand in November 2004 ... Bush carries Minnesota and it is henceforth referred to as a Republican state. Its been trending that way for a while now, the Ventura governorship pried away a lot of blind DFL voting, and Bush carried something like 10 counties that McGovern carried in 1972 ... plus it was close in 2000. Even if things are looking down for Bush next year, I say he still carries it.
TN, AR, WV, CO, NV & NH (and perhaps even CA) will come down to the name that "Generic Democrat" takes starting in a few months.
"TN, AR, WV, CO, NV & NH"
Wow, that list of states just 'triggered' a thought. Gun issues would all play a role in those states. It's times like this that for the general election, I'm not worried about Dean's not so strong gun control stance. I think taking that issue off the table will be worth more than the extra votes it would get in states that already vote Democratic.
Just a thought.
Hmmm, just a thought, what do the electoral forecasts, as they were, look like when you dial in projected approval ratings of 45%, 50%, and 60%? It makes sense for Bush to get spanked when he has a 40% approval rating on election day, but I am wondering about scenarios with midrange approval numbers. I'd also be curious to see which states are "projected" to stay Dem. in the teeth of a Bush landslide. Nothing important, but I would be curious to see what comes out.
Sherk
