Burnt Orange Report

Redistricting Football

By Byron LaMasters

Football won out over redistricting yesterday, as Republicans punted an opportunity to send the latest redistricting map to Governor Perry yesterday. The House passed a map in the early afternoon, but Democrats stalled a House vote on a government reorganization bill until enough Republicans had left for the Texas / OU game in Dallas, so that remaining House Democrats could scatter, preventing a quorum as only 88 of 150 members were present by Friday evening. Meanwhile, the Senate held off on voting on the redistricting map until the House passed the government reorganization bill, and also tried to resolve the objections to the map from four Senate Republicans.

Some of this post is repeated from other posts. This post is a summary of the events of the past day or two for the Political State Report.

The latest redistricting map would give the GOP the advantage in 22 of 32 districts. It would eliminate the minority majority 24th district held by Martin Frost (and turn it into a GOP seat likely to be won by State Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-Carrollton)). It would eliminate Lloyd Doggett's 10th district and split Travis County into three districts, one represented by Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio), one by a McAllen Democrat and one by an Austin or Houston Republican. Take a look at how it carves up central Austin. The map would also likely lead to the defeat of Reps. Charlie Stenholm, Ralph Hall, Chet Edwards, Max Sandlin, Jim Turner and Nick Lampson. Personally, I believe that this map flagrantly violates the Voting Rights Act. While it creates a new Black plurality 9th district in Houston and a new Hispanic Majority 25th district (Austin to the McAllen), it's only a net increase of one majority minority district, as the 25th is currently a majority minority district in Houston. On the other hand, Laredo is split in half and the Hispanic population of district 23, represented by Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio) drops by 11%. Furthermore, district 24, held by Martin Frost (D-Arlington) is retrogressed from a majority minority district to a white majority district. District 10, held by Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) also shows a significant drop in minority influence. A number of other districts also have similar problems, but the ones mentioned above are the ones that I consider the most obvious. If anyone wants to analyse the districts to see if the plan would hold up in court, take a look at the guidebook from the Minnesota legislature on how to draw defensible redistricting maps.

Greg's Opinion offers another, simpler case for the illegality of the current map. He says that the map's author, Rep. Phil King's comment that his goal was to "defeat as many Democratic incumbents" as possible is the definition a gerrymander by the Supreme Court, which says that a redistricting gerrymander violates the Equal Protection Clause when there is "an intent to discriminate against a political group". That is clearly the case here.

The Austin American Statesman had the best headline today:

The Legislature did its best to keep Austin weird Friday.

The story goes on to recap the events of the day:

After fighting Democrats for six months, the state's Republican leadership began the day without enough Senate Republicans to pass the new congressional map. Then, after hours of delay and more intraparty fighting, the House GOP leadership locked its doors and ordered absent members rounded up because there weren't enough members to consider an unrelated bill that the Senate insisted be passed before it would vote on redistricting.

Just before 11 p.m., the House gave up on finding enough members and adjourned until Sunday afternoon. A little later, the Senate also adjourned until Sunday.

"This is a cat-and-mouse game," Rep. John Mabry, D-Waco, said of his Republican colleagues trying to navigate their own differences.

The Democrats had been the ones holding up a new map, but on Friday the Republicans found the last-minute obstacles within their own party.

The House approved the new congressional boundaries 76-58. And after a daylong debate, Gov. Rick Perry and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst rallied enough Senate Republicans to support the map.

Then the redistricting flap, already the victim of two Democratic walkouts over the past six months, took another detour.

Although both chambers voted to delay next year's primaries by a week, moving them to March 9, Senate Republicans postponed a vote on redistricting for several hours until the House members could vote on House Bill 7, a government reorganization proposal that strips key powers from Republican Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn.

The standoff underscored the level of mistrust between the Senate and House and the two Republicans who direct them.

Dewhurst said Speaker Tom Craddick had repeatedly given him his word that the House would pass House Bill 7.

"As Ronald Reagan used to say, 'Trust, but verify,' " Dewhurst said.

The House couldn't take a vote on the reorganization bill until 8 p.m. because of internal legislative rules. By that time, there were only 88 members there, not enough to conduct business. Unlike the last time the House didn't have enough members, the ranks of the absent included Democrats and Republicans.

Craddick already had doubted he could keep a quorum because of the University of Texas-University of Oklahoma football weekend in Dallas. Several lawmakers schedule fund-raisers as part of the football weekend.

Nonetheless, about 5 p.m. the Senate and House were forced to begin a three-hour wait to see whether the House would have enough members by 8 p.m. to conduct business.

Told of the reasons for the delay, Sen. Eddie Lucio, D-Brownsville, said, "Unbelievable."

The Republicans couldn't resist blaming one another.

Dewhurst said he had urged Craddick to "put a call" — requiring all members to be present — at the beginning of Friday's debate.

"It's a long weekend. Folks are trying to, in some cases, get up to Dallas for the Texas-OU game, and I was concerned that, with all of our members here, the speaker might have a hard time maintaining a quorum," Dewhurst said. "I was disappointed we lost that opportunity to get all of our business done this evening."

The proposed map would probably increase GOP membership in the congressional delegation by four to seven seats. Democrats hold a 17-15 advantage under a map drawn by federal judges when the Legislature failed to act in 2001.

But Republicans had more problems than football and mutral distrust between House and Senate leaders. Four GOP Senators had reservations about the final map. With a 19-12 majority in the Senate, Republicans were one vote short early Friday (although it looks now as if they have the votes to pass the map):

Yet Thursday's release of the final map, the result of closed-door negotiations between a handful of House and Senate negotiators, caused several Senate Republicans and one Democrat to reconsider their support.

Sen. Ken Armbrister, the lone Democrat who had supported redistricting, opposed the map because of what it did to his Senate district.

With all 12 Democrats opposed and at least four Republicans leaning against, Dewhurst found himself one vote short of the 16 needed to pass the bill.

That drew Gov. Rick Perry in, lobbying members for their support. He called in his childhood friend, Sen. Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay, to drop his opposition. But Fraser insisted he remained "a solid no" because of what the map did to his Senate district.

Even so, between Perry and Dewhurst, the Republicans finally seemed to have rallied enough votes for the map when they regained support from Sen. Mike Jackson, R-La Porte.

The Statesman also has the roll call from the House vote on the map which passed 76-58. Two Democrats, Vilma Luna, D-Corpus Christi and Ron Wilson, D-Houston voted for passage. Republicans Mike Hamilton, R-Mauriceville, Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, Bob Hunter, R-Abilene, Tommy Merritt, R-Longview, Geanie Morrison, R-Victoria and John Smithee, R-Amarillo voted against the map.

The heated debate also turned to the inevitable court fight. The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports:

"This map will establish balance and fairness to congressional districts by properly reflecting current voting trends," said Rep. Phil King, the Weatherford Republican shepherding the bill.

But Rep. Glenn Lewis, D-Fort Worth, said the plan could run afoul of the federal Voting Rights Act. He said the House leadership ignored advice from their own redistricting attorneys.

"It seems to me that it does not make good common sense. I thought we were smarter than that in Texas," Lewis said.

During one particularly heated exchange, King complained of harassment by Rep. Jim Dunnam, D-Waco.

"I'm not on trial here -- I'm not going to be a badgered witness," King said.

The debate on the Senate side was no less heated. Democrats accused Republicans of ignoring minority voting rights, repeatedly pointing out that many of the African-Americans and Hispanics in Fort Worth and Dallas who united behind U.S. Rep. Martin Frost, an Anglo Democrat from Arlington, would be lumped into districts dominated by conservative Anglo suburbanites.

But the Senate sponsor of the plan put up a vigorous defense.

"I would not have brought this plan forward if I had not truly believed that is a fair plan," said state Todd Staples, R-Palestine. "I do believe it respects communities of interests. I do believe it respects minority representation, that it protects rural interests and reflects the voting trends of Texas."

Democrats in both chambers, who will probably see their party lose its 17-15 edge in the Texas congressional delegation, objected strenuously to the unusual mid-decade redistricting effort and vowed to take the matter to federal judges. They predicted it will not hold up under the 1964 Voting Rights Act.

"See you in court," said Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas.

Sen. Steve Ogden, a Bryan Republican, sharply disputed the notion that only Democrats can represent blacks and Hispanics in Congress.

"Is it fair to stereotype all minorities as Democrats?" said Ogden, reciting the names of several Republican statewide elected officials who are minorities.

The Austin American Statesman outlines the process of the upcoming court fight once a map is passed:

Once the Legislature finishes with congressional redistricting, the fight will shift to the courts — where the precedents are murky and the issues are muddled by the intersection of race and politics.

One outcome is certain, however. There will be an appeal.

Democrats are confident the redistricting map that passed the House but stalled in the Senate on Friday violates the federal Voting Rights Act by reducing the number of minority-opportunity districts — where black and Hispanic voters can control the outcome — from 11 to 10. Further, they argue, the map illegally divides minority communities in Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston and the Rio Grande Valley.

"There's not a snowball's chance in hell that it is legal," said U.S. Rep. Martin Frost, D-Arlington, who is targeted for defeat by the new map. "All together, this could disenfranchise as many as 3.6 million minority Texans."

Republicans, taking advantage of sophisticated map-making computer programs and their own cadre of experts, are confident the districts will stand legal scrutiny.

"For Texas, we have advanced minority representation in this state," said state Sen. Todd Staples, one of the map's creators. "I think that's good for Texas."

The Republicans argue that they have either increased the strength of minority districts or created new ones to offset any setbacks. Taken overall, the GOP says, the state will give minorities a greater opportunity to elect the candidates of their choosing.

Once passed and signed into law by the governor, the map will have its first stop at the U.S. Justice Department. The agency will have 60 days to certify that Texas has not reduced the number of minority-opportunity districts.

Michael McDonald, who has studied redistricting as assistant professor of government and politics at George Mason University, predicts Justice Department approval.

"They have a lot of guidance from Justice on what they'll accept or not," he said.

Democrats have voiced skepticism that the agency, run by President Bush appointee John Ashcroft, will seriously study the GOP-drawn map. But an agency spokesman said career attorneys, not political appointees, will review the districts.

"We are a law enforcement agency, and we are not beholden to anybody's politics," spokesman Jorge Martinez said.

Far more uncertain will be the map's fate in federal court, where experts for hire and complex statistical analyses help determine the winner. This is where the hot rhetoric will be cooled by a dry recitation of percentages and population comparisons.

"Who knows what the actual end result will be, and perhaps it's why the Democrats feel they have a chance," McDonald said. "A lot of it depends on the court, so I'm sure they're going to be doing some court shopping."

A Democratic congressional aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the lawsuit will be filed in federal court in Tyler, where a three-judge panel drew up the map used in the 2002 elections.

Still, redistricting cases are notoriously difficult to predict, said Mark Rush, a professor of politics at Washington and Lee University who co-wrote the book "Fair and Effective Representation? Debating Electoral Reform and Minority Rights."

This summer's Supreme Court decision in Georgia v. Ashcroft changed a decade of Voting Rights Act precedent by allowing districts to have lower minority populations if minority-choice candidates can still be elected, Rush said.

"It seems the Supreme Court standards allow any map to pass constitutional muster — or so you would think. But the standards are so vague and contradictory that anybody can try," he said. "It's a hornet's nest because of the political stakes involved."

Elsewhere, there's already talk about who's running for congress. Republicans in Central Texas are eager to take on Rep. Chet Edwards in a new district dividing Edward's bases of Waco and Temple:

The new map also prompted a flurry of rumors regarding candidates thinking of running against Edwards, and changed the plans of those already mounting a campaign.

Former state Rep. Hugh Shine, R-Temple, who was challenging Edwards for his District 11 seat, said he will now run in District 31.

Another challenger, Republican Dot Snyder, said that in order to run against Edwards, she will move from Coryell County to McLennan County.

"I've been campaigning in some of the wrong counties, clearly, but I'm going to begin campaigning in the new district," Snyder said.

State Reps. Fred Brown, R-College Station, and Arlene Wohlgemuth, R-Burleson, along with state Sen. Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, were also rumored to be considering a run for Edwards' seat. On Thursday, Brown spokeswoman Melissa Nickolas said he had no current plans to run for a congressional seat.

Ogden spokesman Rich Wright would only say "it's a rumor."

And Wohlgemuth spokesman Alan Burrows said the representative has been receiving phone calls asking her to run for Congress and is "not ready with an answer."

Wohlgemuth has been at odds with Waco leaders in recent years over efforts to control pollution that flows from upstream dairies into Lake Waco, where residents get most of their water.

The Waco Tribune-Herald also weighs in with their editorial urging Sen. Kip Averitt (R-McGreggor) to vote "no". Averitt is considered a solid "yes" vote at this point. Back in Austin, even though the reconfigured district 10 would favor a Republican, Lloyd Doggett has pledged to run for re-election wherever his district may be.

In other editorials, the San Antonio Express-News says that Republicans reached too far. The Beaumont Enterprise slams Tom DeLay's involvement in the redistricting fight.

Finally, the Washington Post is running a story on an internal GOP report on the redistricting battle with some gloating by a legislative aide to Rep. Joe Barton:

The analysis of the plan, written by the legislative counsel to U.S. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.), provides a rare public glimpse into the inner workings of the congressional redistricting process, which both political parties use to advance their own cause and hurt the opposition.

In the case of the Texas GOP plan, the analysis described how steps were taken to try to protect the plan from legal challenge under the Voting Rights Act of 1965, but also how minority voters would be shifted into Republican-dominated suburban districts and how a new district in West Texas was crafted to meet the aspirations of a friend of President Bush.

"This is the most aggressive map I have ever seen," Joby Fortson wrote in the analysis, which he e-mailed to congressional aides. "This has a real national impact that should assure that Republicans keep the House no matter the national mood."

Fortson predicted that Texas Republicans would pick up six to seven new House seats in next year's congressional elections if the plan withstands the expected legal challenge by Democrats. His analysis tracks closely with an analysis by the staff of U.S. Rep. Martin Frost (D-Tex.), which said the new district lines would endanger the reelection chances of at least seven Democratic incumbents.

It is not known whether Fortson played any role in drafting the redistricting plan, but his views about its probable impact closely parallel those of Democratic and independent political analysts.

Referring to new districts that would stretch from around the state capital of Austin to the border with Mexico, Fortson said they were "part of the voting rights protection element" in the plan. The districts are designed to be dominated by minority voters even as Republicans would make gains elsewhere.

Fortson appeared to take special delight in writing about what he predicted would be the fate of two Texas Democrats, Frost and Rep. Lloyd Doggett. "Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha . . .," he wrote before describing how the plan would affect their districts.

Discussing Frost's district, which runs between Fort Worth and Dallas, Fortson said, "It simply disappears." He said black voters in Fort Worth would be shifted into a Republican-dominated district, black voters in Dallas would be sent to a nearby district that is already heavily black, and Hispanic voters would be moved into another GOP district.

"This is the D's best legal challenge as inner city Fort Worth will now be outnumbered in a Republican suburban district," Fortson wrote. However, he added, because the plan would also create a new African American district in Houston, it should withstand a challenge under the Voting Rights Act.

Doggett represents the liberal bastion of Austin and, according to the analysis, his district would be dismembered. His new territory would run from a conservative section in north central Austin to the outskirts of Houston and is "very Republican," Fortson wrote.

Hmmm....