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October 09, 2003

Reaction to the Thursday Morning Massacre

By Jim Dallas

Sen. Chuy Hinojosa (D-McAllen) says that Gov. Perry has reneged on his promise to protect Hispanic voters (who are probably the biggest losers in the spate of proposed districts which would merge Central Texas with the Valley).

Rep. Barry Telford (D-DeKalb) calls it "thuggery"

(See the Quorum Report)

Meanwhile, Gov. Perry says the map was "worth the debate" and Rep. Phil King (R) says the map is "legally sound."

The biggest critics, undoubtedly, will be from Austin, which gets sliced-and-diced (or stabbed in the back, depending on which Ginsu knife metaphor you prefer more).

Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos (D-Austin):

Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos, D- Austin, said the new maps are "bad for Texas".

"The devastating thing is being, the capital city, is being torn into three congressional districts. This is the district that Lyndon Johnson and [Jake] Pickle represented is now going to be mostly in Houston ... 63 percent Republican,” Barrientos said.

Barrientos also said the new congressional districts leave no contested races between the two parties.

From looking at the TLC report (which wasn't available this morning), it looks like there's only 10 real Democratic districts in this map - one in Dallas, three in Houston, one in San Antonio, one in El Paso, and four which run parallel from Central Texas to the Valley.

Chris Bell is a goner. Chet Edwards and Nick Lampson are both in 60-40 Republican districts. I expect Sandlin and Turner to both be in significant trouble. Doggett is almost certainly toast. As is Stenholm.

Most likely this map will lead to a 20-12 or 21-11 split. This is way beyond the 56 percent threshold of "fairness" upon which this enterprise is founded upon. Of course, we knew that would happen.

Here's a color-coded map to simplify things. Red districts are those that went in Republican in 2002; Blue are Democratic districts.

1374C.JPG

A vote is scheduled for Friday.

SOME NOTES: pc thinks Martin Frost is OUT, and I'm inclined to agree due to the fact that the only Dem-leaning DFW district is probably not going to be his turf.

Incidentally, this map is a work-of-art in terms of one person, one vote. The smallest district has only one less person (at least according to the unadjusted census count; which probably means thousands of Texans are not actually counted, but c'est la vie) than the largest district. 651,619 people in the smallest compared to 651,620 people for the largest.That's not easy to do -- I'm impressed.

Someday I would like to be a gerrymander-er extraordinaire...

EDIT: Yes, I originally said "9 Democratic seats". It's 10. I screwed up the math, which should have been obvious (1+3+1+1+4).

Posted by Jim Dallas at October 9, 2003 08:03 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Good analysis. You forgot about Martin Frost. He's toast. The House side got what they wanted. Todd Staples and Robert Duncan in the Senate were deemed irrelevant by Tom Delay.

Sandlin could move to Atlanta or Texarkana and run against Ralph Hall in a Democratic Primary and beat his ass. I doubt he will though.

He'll run and get beat 54-46 to former Tyler Mayor Kevin Eltife.

Yeah Doggett would lose to either Rep. Jack Stick R-Austin, or Corbin Van Arsdale of Katy, depending on whoever wins that primary.

Well Gonzalo Barrientos or Eddie Rodriguez would have a shot against a McAllen Democrat. That district is almost a total racial gerrymander. It reminds me of the old 30th.

The voices of hispanics in Dallas will now be unheard by Pete Sessions. Michael Burgess R-Lewisville, is a nice guy, but I doubt he will be visiting his constituents in SE Fort Worth.

I stll think there are major retrogression problems in Bonilla's 23rd.

Come friday, on to the courts!

Posted by: pc at October 9, 2003 08:50 PM

OMfG, Corbin Van Arsdale? What is this world coming to?

Didn't he write the sodomy law that got struck down by the Supreme Court?

Posted by: Jim D at October 9, 2003 10:42 PM

Him or Jack Stick --> GAG!

Posted by: Jim D at October 9, 2003 10:42 PM

Don't you all think Bell would run in the new 9th?

Posted by: Rob Booth (Slightly Rough) at October 9, 2003 10:46 PM

I'm obviously wrong about Van Arsdale and the sodomy thing; however, I am thinking, however, about the Defense of Marriage Act, for which he was a co-author.

Still not my favorite person though.

Bell might in the new ninth, although wouldn't he have to move? The new ninth seems a little further south of his old digs.

Posted by: Jim D at October 9, 2003 10:53 PM

The voices of hispanics in Dallas will now be unheard by Pete Sessions.

Because Sessions is white? What foundation do you have for such an allegation?

Charlie Gonzalez is my Congressman and Leticia Van de Putte is my State Senator, I am ashamed to say. I have much more of a factual basis to make such a statement about my representative (in reverse, of course).

Posted by: Mark Harden at October 10, 2003 07:06 AM

Bell legally wouldn't have to move. You only have to live in the same state as the Congressional district. Politically that's a different issue.

Posted by: Rob Booth (Slightly Rough) at October 10, 2003 08:17 AM

"Charlie Gonzalez is my Congressman..."

Hey Mark, I'll trade you my congressman for yours. I'll pretend that Charlie Gonzalez is my representative and you can pretend that Henry Bonilla is yours.
At least Gonzalez isn't a "Family Values" Hypocrite like the recently divorced Bonilla.
Golly, I wonder if there was any truth to the rumors of Bonilla fooling around and cheating on his wife all these years. Hmmmm.

Posted by: Mike Thomas at October 10, 2003 10:32 AM

The only good thing about this map is that it takes the gayest neighborhoods of Dallas out of the anti-gay Pete ("I don't represent any homosexuals")Sessions' district.

I have a feeling that there are going to be VRA problems--at the very least, the Bonilla changes appear to violate the Georgia case.

IIRC, the Pennsylvania case isn't going to be heard until December 10, with a decision some time next year. Isn't an injunction against these lines extremely likely in the interim?

Posted by: precinct1233 at October 10, 2003 11:16 AM

You only have to live in the same state as the Congressional district. Politically that's a different issue.

If that's the case, Doggett could run for the 25th. That district is currently around Houston, and has been moved to E. Travis down to the valley. I have a hard time believing that the 25th current owner would fly in the new 25h, so it's basically an open slot.

Trying desperately to find a glimmer of personal happiness out of this disgusting situation.

Posted by: ERic at October 10, 2003 12:10 PM

Mark it would be like putting the old West side of San Antonio, and lumping it with Alamo Heights. There is no communitiy of interest between the Highland Park area and the barrios of Oak Cliff. Hopefully that helps you.

Posted by: pc at October 10, 2003 01:50 PM

Eric, I think that is right. Doggett should be able to get the D nomination in the 25th given historically low turnout rates in the Valley. It's a terrible thing, but I'm damn sure gonna support having at least ONE representative from Travis County.

Posted by: Blue at October 10, 2003 02:01 PM

I think it's safe to say that this country has been Bushwacked and the state of Texas has been Perrywinkled.
I'm just curious. With Delay steamrolling a new map into place who didn't think he was going to break up the People's Republic of Travis County?
On the upside, under the new map I'll keep Leticia and get Charlie as my congressman. Now all I have to do is get rid of Ken Mercer.
Seems all we can do now is follow Molly Ivins' advice and just keep laughing, otherwise we'll go nuts.

Posted by: Jacob M. at October 10, 2003 02:47 PM

i really wish lloyd doggett wouldn't go though. i'm going to miss him. i'll have to be sure to make my new rep wish he never ran for a piece of austin..

Posted by: jrenae at October 10, 2003 02:48 PM

At least Gonzalez isn't a "Family Values" Hypocrite like the recently divorced Bonilla.

You missed Charlie's divorce a couple of years ago?

Posted by: Mark Harden at October 10, 2003 04:01 PM

There is no communitiy of interest between the Highland Park area and the barrios of Oak Cliff. Hopefully that helps you.

And by your logic, neither can Senators Hutchison and Cornyn represent those different constituencies. Or any statewide office holder. Or any federal office holder.

You seem to have imbibed a bit too much of the racial identity politics KoolAid, amigo. That, or you have a seriously attenuated conception of representative government.

I repeat: Leticia Van de Putte hates Anglos, and she is my State Senator. But I'm not whining about it. I'll vote against her next time, although gerrymandering insures her reelection - that's all I can do.

Posted by: Mark Harden at October 10, 2003 04:05 PM

Mark, you are obviously ignorant of the difference in role between a STATE Senator and a DISTRICT Representative.

Posted by: Blue at October 10, 2003 04:10 PM

Mark, you are obviously ignorant of the difference in role between a STATE Senator and a DISTRICT Representative.

pc wrote: "The voices of hispanics in Dallas will now be unheard by Pete Sessions." His implication is that no Republican can represent the barrio. I assume, if he is ocnsistent, he would say the same thing about my being represented by Van de Putte. But he's wrong on both counts.

My point regarding DISTRICT versus STATE representation is precisely that at those levels, there are by definition multiple "communities of interest" represented by a single individual, of whatever political persuasion. pc's statement would mean that a citizen can never be adequately represented by a politican who is not in accord with them ideologically. I don't know what sort of utopian government he has in mind that would obviate this effect, but it ain't representative democracy.

Posted by: Mark Harden at October 10, 2003 04:44 PM

Mark. Never called him a racist. Hispanic areas in Dallas are at least 66% Democratic. There are no communities of interests between Oak Cliff and Highland Park and North Dallas. That's all I'm saying.

He never came to little Mexico in Dallas. It has a high concentration of hispanics. I think 1233 is familiar with this area that is in the current 32nd. He never visited constituents there. I know the leaders in that area. Although they are Democrats, they would like help on issues like VA benefits, etc.

I doubt he will be south of the trinity river, unless it is to raise money in Kessler Park, where some Republicans live.

Mark, some Republicans have tried to represent minority areas,but unlike San Antonio, where there are very diverse middle class areas, Dallas is still mainly defined politically and economically by what side of the river you live on.

Posted by: pc at October 13, 2003 11:53 AM
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