Burnt Orange Report

What Clark's Entry Means

By Andrew Dobbs

So with the late entry of General Wesley “Everything Democrats Have Ever Wanted” Clark it is the job of self-appointed pundits such as yours truly to ask what effect his entry will have on the race. Perhaps without much elucidation on his part of his potential platform this is impossible, but we ought to try anyways. Here’s what we do know:

1. He’s from Arkansas
2. He’s a smarty- graduated first in his class at West Point and was a Rhodes Scholar
3. He’s a decorated 4-star General
4. He’s pro-choice
5. He’s pro-gun control
6. He’s pro-affirmative action
7. He’s moderately pro-gay
8. His campaign will likely feature Mark Fabiani and Chris Lehane, two major league assholes with a penchant for losing to George W. Bush, in starring roles
9. He’s against the War in Iraq
10. He’s buddies with Bill Clinton

Okay, so I stopped at 10 because that’s a nice round number and because that seems to be the most important stuff to know. First effect I would say is that Bob Graham is probably history. His campaign never really took off- he has abysmal numbers, he raises about as much money as Denis Kucinich and with another Southerner in the race there’s really no room for him. Most commentators have dropped his name from the list of contenders and another serious Dem really sticks the last stake in him. Unless his Q3 numbers are just phenomenal look for him to drop out and look for some of his top campaign people to jump onto Clark’s ship.

Next is the CW that John Kerry is really fucked. Kerry was the dream candidate- an articulate, intelligent war hero. Put that up against Draft Dodger Shrub and he looks like hot shit. But since then his campaign has done really nothing, it is losing vital ground in NH and losing the money race to a governor from a state with fewer people than a lot of good-sized counties here in Texas. Now his supporters see someone with the same positives, only better. Kerry was articulate and intelligent in a patrician Beacon Hill, Yalie sort of way, Clark is articulate and intelligent in a Bill Clinton, Arkansas boy done good sort of way. Kerry was a war hero, but the whole thing seemed calculated for his political ambition, Clark made a career out of military service and has that reluctant leader thing that Americans love (think George Washington, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower). Plus, Kerry and Clark have the same idea- try to do okay in Iowa but really knock them dead in New Hampshire. Kerry is already 10-20 points behind Dean in NH and the points Clark seeps off threaten to derail him completely on that day.

Next comes the problems for Edwards. First, Edwards’ announcement got about as much media coverage as a Jermaine Jackson album release thanks to Clark’s wise choice of an announcement day. Right after Edwards’ speech and right before the political black hole that is Hurricane Isabel coverage, Clark ends this week as the story of the week. Now, with the presumed exit or at least continued marginalization of Bob Graham Clark trumps Edwards as the only southerner in the race. In fact, he becomes the best southerner in the race and shuts off all the Clinton support Edwards was counting on. Edwards was another buzz candidate that has disappointed so far and like Kerry he is hurt by a candidate who is everything he is- southern, folksy, Clinton-esque- only better.

Lieberman is hurt because he was counting on “Sunbelt Tuesday”- February 3 when South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico and Delaware have their primaries- to prop him up after presumed losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. But who is more likely to pick up votes in the South and West? The New England Jew who ran as Al Gore’s running mate or the Arkansas General that kicked Slobodan Milosovic’s ass? The war issue is Lieberman’s best bet to win on this day but running as the pro-war candidate will lose him much needed delegates everywhere else as the activist primary base tends to be anti-war. Additionally, if things keep going like they are now overseas Lieberman will probably want to distance himself from that conflict altogether. If Dean wins in IA and NH, as he is wont to do, the field will be Dean, Clark, Lieberman and Edwards on Sunbelt Tuesday. Clark wins in South Carolina and perhaps Oklahoma, Dean wins in New Mexico, Delaware and Missouri, Lieberman can maybe pick up Arizona or Oklahoma, but I call them for Dean and Clark, respectively. Even if he wins both he is effectively out of the race as is Edwards, making it a Dean v. Clark affair to the end on March 2nd when about 1/3 of all the delegates are divvied up.

And how does the General fare against Dean? Normally he would be very dangerous simply because he has many of the same views and his campaign’s base has been the internet-driven Draft Clark campaign that rivals Dean’s net effort. But the entry of Lehane and Fabiani suggests that this campaign will begin to take on a very conventional, top-down appearance very quickly. Slaying top-down conventional campaign dragons is what gets Howard Dean through the night- it’s his hobby, his specialty and the secret to his meteoric rise. Additionally, Dean’s base tends to be far more committed to their man than most other candidates’. Having said this, I still see Clark seeping off enough votes to perhaps hand Iowa to Gephardt, but as long as it is close Dean has really won. I also see him winning New Hampshire for Dean by seeping off enough Kerry votes to make it even easier. After Sunbelt Tuesday the race will effectively be a Dean v. Clark affair. After that it will be far more volatile than any other Dean v. pairing simply because while he has the establishment cred that all the other “other guys” have, he also has solid liberal cred as well, which makes him an interesting foil for Dean. It will depend on organization, money and image- number one breaks Dean’s way, number three for Clark so I really think that money will be the deciding factor. If Dean keeps his fundraising machine going like it is now, the nomination is his with perhaps Clark as his VP. If Clark can tap the Clinton money though he might be able to eclipse the governor and will win with Dean perhaps as his running mate (though I think he has lots of options- Phil Bredesen of TN, Mary Landrieu of LA, John Edwards, Evan Bayh of IN, Max Cleland of GA, or even one idea I heard- John McCain… be still my heart). So here’s where I see it- Clark will get a lot of Clinton supporter money, but Clinton would be a fool to endorse him or anyone else. Dean’s machine will keep going as very few of his nearly 100,000 donors are maxed out and thus can be tapped again and again. Noting this, I call it a tossup.

Finally, Gephardt is really the only candidate helped by Clark I think. Everyone that is really making Gephardt sweat right now- Dean in IA, Kerry in NH, Edwards and Lieberman on Sunbelt Tuesday- are hurt far more by Clark than he is. If Clark seeps off enough Dean votes to hand IA to Gep, enough Kerry votes in NH to hand him a close third or even second place and enough Edwards/Lieberman votes in labor heavy SC to hand him a close second or victory there (plus his home state win in MO) he can stay alive longer than he would with losses in any of those places. Plus, another plausible anti-war candidate splits that constituency even further to his benefit. If Gephardt can’t turn the money machine on all of this will be moot anyways as he will run out of gas long before the big day(s) and as time goes on his only real strength- union support- is slipping so I see Gephardt losing despite all of this help.

So here’s the score card:

1. Graham is gone
2. Clark is like Kerry, only better
3. Clark is like Edwards, only better
4. Lieberman will lose a head to head battle in the South with Clark
5. The race will be Dean v. Clark with money being the deciding factor
6. Gephardt is helped by Clark’s entry though the point is moot unless he starts making some money

So we can rank the candidates with Dean as the front-runner, Clark as the number two if things continue the way I see them, Gephardt third, Lieberman fourth, Kerry fifth, Edwards sixth, Graham seventh. Please comment, I'd be glad to hear what people have to say about all of this.