Burnt Orange Report

Session Starts Today, Dems Declare Victory on 12

By Byron LaMasters

Well, Special Session #3 starts today at noon, and I'm not quite sure what will happen. No question, the Senate chamber gallery will be packed. Sen. Barrientos and Rep. Lloyd Doggett have urged supporters to pack the senate gallery today at noon to show their support for the "Texas Eleven Minus One". The Austin American Statesman reports:

Texas senators reunite today like a squabbling couple who have tried a 45-day trial separation but decided not to get a divorce.

How does hubby move back into the house — or in this case, the Senate — as if nothing happened? And what to do with all those messy conditions — in this case, $57,000 in fines — the wife laid down?

Unlike most reconciliations, this one will take place in public. A packed public gallery and a long line of TV cameras are expected to see how the 20 senators who stayed behind greet their 11 colleagues who fled to New Mexico to boycott plans to redraw congressional boundaries.

And with the quote of the day, Todd Staples...

"We may need counseling," quipped Sen. Todd Staples of Palestine, leader of the Senate Republicans.

[...]

While still worlds apart on the issue of redistricting, both sides may be moving toward a reconciliation.

Last week, Staples said of the fines: "Actions have consequences."

Democrats continue to say they won't pay the fines.

Staples, however, is changing his message.

On Friday, Staples said that how the Senate deals with the fines could depend on how the returning Democrats conduct themselves.

"It's time to move away from political posturing," he said. "In part, it's going to depend on how our members come back and interact. I don't think there is a sense of urgency in dealing with the fines immediately."

Harold Cook is an adviser to the Senate Democrats who stayed with them for the 45-day boycott.

He predicted no problems from the Democrats.

"These people are dead set against redistricting, but they are still the same senators who left town," Cook said. "They will disagree without being disagreeable."

Still, Cook admits nothing much about this impasse has been predictable: "It's not every year that both houses break a quorum."

The Senate Republicans didn't just levy fines. They passed a resolution taking away the missing senators' parking, limiting their postage and barring their staff members from the Senate floor, among other privileges.

Asked where the returning Democrats should park, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who presides over the Senate, said Friday, "I recommend they park as close as they can but outside the Capitol grounds."

Turning serious, Dewhurst added: "The problem doesn't have anything to do with parking. The problem is, our 11 Democratic colleagues broke state law, they broke a quorum, and they've been increasing the political rhetoric. It's over. We need to come together, move forward as we have in the past."

Dewhurst admitted it may take awhile.

"Realistically, I expect a little posturing," he said. "But I hope that dies now in hours or days."

Of course, the other big question is what will happen with the Republicans own internal squabble.

The Republicans might need that time to work out their own family fight.

Dewhurst said he thinks House and Senate Republicans are closer to resolving a dispute over a new district for West Texas.

Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland, wants a congressional district for his hometown.

Sen. Robert Duncan, R-Lubbock, has opposed a Midland district because his constituents don't want any change in the region. He traveled to Washington this week to discuss the problem with members of Congress from West Texas.

Staples said he would like an understanding between the House and Senate before passing a map. The House's mapmaker, Rep. Phil King, R-Weatherford, said that might not be possible. He thinks both chambers need to pass their own versions, then hammer out their differences in a conference committee.

The Republicans hope to increase their seats in Texas' 32-member congressional delegation to as many as 21. The Democrats hold 17 of the seats now.

Staples said he still wants input from his Democratic colleagues despite their boycott.

"I truthfully want to help (Democrats) where help can be given," Staples said. "I'm not polarized."

But he noted there is a limit on how much he can give.

"It's not a simple task. Every person's desires impacts the state map," he said. "No one can get all they want in this process."

Also in the Statesman today, Democrats are calling their 51-49% loss a victory of sorts:

There wasn't a name or a party on the ballot, but the partisan alignment was pretty clear in the high-dollar battle over Proposition 12.

Top Republicans, led by a big-push effort from Gov. Rick Perry, generally backed the proposed constitutional amendment allowing lawmakers to place limits on some civil lawsuit awards.

Democrats, who have no major personality to rally behind, largely were against it, branding it as an unfair effort to handcuff juries and allow unethical businesses to avoid accountability.

Perry and the Republicans prevailed by a 51 percent to 49 percent margin, an outcome so surprisingly close — fewer than 30,000 votes out of 1.46 million cast — that it's possible to spin the result as the most successful statewide election Democrats have had in a long, long time.

"It was essentially an even split vote, a virtual tie, showing that Texas, like the nation, is a 50-50 proposition," said Democratic consultant Kelly Fero, who worked against Proposition 12.

[...]

Democrats in recent years rarely have come close to anything resembling a 50-50 split in statewide elections. With few exceptions, their candidates have been trounced.

"This underscores that the mainstream will be pushed only so far and that arrogant power-mongering will not be tolerated by a majority of mainstream Texans," said Fero, eager to talk about Saturday's defeat as a near-victory. "The Democratic Party, which has been given up for dead, almost managed to pull it out."

Texas Democratic Chair- woman Molly Beth Malcolm said the result stands as a "personal rebuke" against Perry.

"Rick Perry turned a blowout into a nail-biter," she said Sunday. "About two weeks before the election, public polls showed that Proposition 12 was ahead by 12 points. But that lead evaporated once TV spots featuring Perry went on the air."

Of course, Prop 12 backers don't agree with that analysis:

But Proposition 12 backers said it was nonsense to try to characterize the results as a rebuke of Perry.

"Clearly, without hard work and leadership from the governor and Mrs. Perry, who campaigned across Texas and appeared in the 'Yes on 12' TV ads, the measure would not have passed," said Ray Sullivan, a GOP consultant who worked for passage of the amendment. "We won big on traditionally Democratic turf, South Texas and the border, and won in stalwart GOP counties like Collin, Denton, Montgomery, Fort Bend and Williamson."

Though it's not possible to characterize the battle as played precisely along party lines — the major anti-Proposition 12 group was headed by two former Republican state Supreme Court justices — it is clear that Perry barely avoided what would have been a major political embarrassment.

Again, another big surprise was that while greater Dallas, greater Houston and Austin rejected Prop 12 by a large margin, Prop 12 won by its success in South Texas (amid a low turnout there).

Nevertheless, his aides found nothing but good news for him and his party in the outcome. The real story, according to Deirdre Delisi, Perry's deputy chief of staff, was in county-by-county results, not the statewide numbers.

The returns show that the GOP side ran very well in some traditionally Democratic strongholds, particularly heavily Hispanic South Texas.

Proposition 12 carried by a wide margin (65 percent to 35 percent) in Cameron County. Next door, in Hidalgo County, another Democratic enclave, the "againsts" prevailed by a mere 63 votes out of almost 19,000 cast.

Any GOP statewide candidate would be thrilled with a near-tie in Hidalgo County.

In Nueces County, another heavily Hispanic South Texas county, 71 percent of the voters said yes to Proposition 12.

"Here is the worst news for Democrats," Delisi said. "We won this race in South Texas."

In a candidateless, partyless election, she said, many traditionally Democratic South Texas Hispanics voted like Republicans.

"We have always said that Hispanics vote based on ideas," she said. "We brought them an issue on which they overwhelmingly agreed with us in places where the problem has been felt the most acutely.

"What the Democrats must be really concerned about is the support South Texas and Hispanics showed for this Republican concept of tort reform," Delisi said.

She said the best measure of the electorate's reaction to the proposal was found in early voting completed before anti-Proposition 12 forces, largely financed by trial lawyers, ran emotional ads in the final days, including a spot featuring a young girl who lost her legs in an automobile fire.

Though the final margin was a mere 51 percent to 49 percent, the early voting showed 57 percent support for the proposal.

From his perch in academia, University of Texas government professor Bruce Buchanan found merit in the spin that says Saturday was the Democrats' most successful statewide election day in a long time.

"I can't think of a recent good example that even comes close," he said.

Buchanan said the anti-Proposition 12 forces, including trial lawyers and consumer advocates, portrayed the other side as mounting an assault on Texans' right to their day in court. The appeal got Democrats "charged in a way you haven't seen in awhile," according to Buchanan.

"What's unusual about it was that it touched something near and dear to Democrats — constitutional protections and access to courts — that it got them going, and they did almost pull it out," he said.

"I think the lesson (for Republicans) is, don't hit (Democrats) where they live because they might turn into a more formidable opponent than recent elections would suggest," Buchanan said.