Burnt Orange Report

On a wing and a prayer... the BOR Virtual Vote Watch Gala

By Jim Dallas

Here is a transcript of the behind-the-scenes vote-calling between me (Texasyojimbo82) and Byron.

Some names have been changed to protect the innocent...

TexasYojimbo82: We just got another big bounce
TexasYojimbo82: 53.2-46.8
TexasYojimbo82: dern tootin!
ByronL82: wow
TexasYojimbo82: We have picked up 12000 votes
TexasYojimbo82: on Eday
TexasYojimbo82: we are now down by 41000
TexasYojimbo82: eday - 52.6% AGAINST
ByronL82: you'll have to add this to the political almanac
ByronL82: the prop 12 returns
ByronL82: that would be interesting to see if it's close
ByronL82: collin co is only 62% for
ByronL82: it gave most gop candidate 73-80 in 2002
TexasYojimbo82: yeah
TexasYojimbo82: OK Byron
ByronL82: i think most of the urban/suburban counties are running way below the RPI
TexasYojimbo82: Hold on to your hat
ByronL82: dunno about rural
TexasYojimbo82: If the trend holds
ByronL82: and s. texas
TexasYojimbo82: The election should come down to 10-15000 votes
TexasYojimbo82: which uh
TexasYojimbo82: would be like about a percent I think
TexasYojimbo82: Yeah
TexasYojimbo82: It could come as close as 51-49
ByronL82: yeah it's down 53-47 in dallas with 50% in
TexasYojimbo82: My projection is 16900 votes as the spread
ByronL82: e-day vote in Dallas county is 60-40 against
ByronL82: i just ran that
TexasYojimbo82: per my excel spreadsheet
TexasYojimbo82: ok :-)
ByronL82: heh cool
ByronL82: 16900 yes or no?
TexasYojimbo82: you want?
ByronL82: sure
ByronL82: 53.07-46.93 with 39% in
TexasYojimbo82: I sent the sheet to you just now
TexasYojimbo82: it is prop12.xls
ByronL82: sent to where?
TexasYojimbo82: lamasters@mail.utexas.edu
ByronL82: oh shit i don't have excel on this computer yet
TexasYojimbo82: :-(
TexasYojimbo82: mo numbas mo numbas mo numbas
TexasYojimbo82: 52.95 - 47.05
TexasYojimbo82: 42.56 reporting
TexasYojimbo82: EDAY %
0.485863853
0.514136147

TexasYojimbo82: 29306.58011
TexasYojimbo82: oops
TexasYojimbo82: basically
TexasYojimbo82: I predict we'll pick up about half the votes we need
TexasYojimbo82: but only half
TexasYojimbo82: we need 54306
ByronL82: good news
ByronL82: Harris co has barely nothing in yet
TexasYojimbo82: oh hell yeah
TexasYojimbo82: :-)
ByronL82: i'm just looking at the co by co canvass
TexasYojimbo82: be sure to update
ByronL82: 17 of 730 reporting
ByronL82: bad news is that we're losing in co's in south texas like bexar and el paso
ByronL82: same in cameron
ByronL82: and hidalgo
ByronL82: but low turnout in both
ByronL82: we're a couple hundred votes up in mclennan co
ByronL82: with 1/2 votes in
ByronL82: thats good
TexasYojimbo82: Mark Harden's "bold" prediction is that all 22 will pass
TexasYojimbo82: I also posted our consensus that 12 would be "darn close"
TexasYojimbo82: numbers looking good again
TexasYojimbo82: 52.6-48.4% eday
TexasYojimbo82: sorry
TexasYojimbo82: that's 52.6-47.4 total
TexasYojimbo82: 48.4-51.6 eday
TexasYojimbo82: lemme see...
ByronL82: hmm well through 46.75% it's dropped exactly 4 pts from the early vote (56.77 - 52.78)
ByronL82: thus if it drops another 4 pts we win
ByronL82: in my very unscientific analysis
TexasYojimbo82: yeah
ByronL82: its just depends on where the boxes out are
ByronL82: and a lot of them are in harris co.
TexasYojimbo82: its now at eday 48.9-51.1
TexasYojimbo82: some pro-12 boxes just got counted somewhere
ByronL82: hmm thats narrowing
ByronL82: still at 46.75 in?
TexasYojimbo82: not sure
TexasYojimbo82: yeah
ByronL82: ok well thats still good
ByronL82: travis co is sittin on 34%
TexasYojimbo82: it's still probable I think it will get down into the 51 range at least
ByronL82: yeah
TexasYojimbo82: as in 34 percent counted or 34 not counted?
ByronL82: counter
ByronL82: d
TexasYojimbo82: damn
TexasYojimbo82: well thats odd
TexasYojimbo82: I wonder what they're waiting for
ByronL82: they usually take forever
TexasYojimbo82: bastards
TexasYojimbo82: they need to put the clerk on roller skates again
TexasYojimbo82: :-P
ByronL82: heh
ByronL82: ok... i'm gonna see what co's have more than a few dozen boxes out
ByronL82: bexar co has 194 of 654 counted
TexasYojimbo82: ok
TexasYojimbo82: hmm
ByronL82: prop 12 is ahead there but losing on e-day
TexasYojimbo82: are they still mostly pro- ?
ByronL82: Dallas still has 1/2 out
ByronL82: Perry's sort of declaring victory
ByronL82: ok no he's not
ByronL82: tv's reporting that he thinks it'll pass
TexasYojimbo82: Heh
TexasYojimbo82: typical Perry.
TexasYojimbo82: I would have guessed he'd declare victory yesterday
TexasYojimbo82: After what he did to Sanchez (Ok, maybe that's a bad example)
ByronL82: wow it's close in Denton co.. (heavily gop)
TexasYojimbo82: The man has NO CLASS
TexasYojimbo82: "Let's put a dent in the Denton GOP! Yay"
TexasYojimbo82: :: does cheerleader dance ::
ByronL82: Denton co is ahead with 55%, but it's a 70% gop co
TexasYojimbo82: I say we post this IM to the blog after its all over
TexasYojimbo82: :: shakes booty ::
TexasYojimbo82: You know what it's time for...
TexasYojimbo82: the ULTIMATE CHEER
ByronL82: heh ok
ByronL82: harris.... 111/730 in
ByronL82: oh hell yah
ByronL82: jefferson is out
ByronL82: 1/107
TexasYojimbo82: well
TexasYojimbo82: with half the vote counted now
ByronL82: and failing big in early vote
TexasYojimbo82: it is officially 52.8-47.2
TexasYojimbo82: with e-day at 50.9-49.1
TexasYojimbo82: sorry 49.1-50.9
TexasYojimbo82: you know
ByronL82: ok
TexasYojimbo82: Anyway my projection is that the spread will be 38000 votes out of over a million
TexasYojimbo82: which would be, uh,
TexasYojimbo82: about 52-48
TexasYojimbo82: which was what we guessed beforehand
ByronL82: well out of that last batch
ByronL82: more of collin came in
ByronL82: none from jefferson, Dallas or harris
TexasYojimbo82: YES WORLD, WE DID SAY WE PREDICTED 52-48. YOU CAN BOOK US FOR PARTIES AND BIRTHDAYS BY CALLING 1-800-555-5555.
TexasYojimbo82: ooh
TexasYojimbo82: well now we're getting basically pro-12 numbers and its still looking decent
TexasYojimbo82: ...
TexasYojimbo82: "sittin pretty"
ByronL82: we won big in Orange Co with 16% turnout
ByronL82: hah
ByronL82: 3373 to 5061
ByronL82: deep east texas is comin through
TexasYojimbo82: wait a second we already have 1200000 votes!
TexasYojimbo82: no sorry
TexasYojimbo82: added wrong
TexasYojimbo82: ooh boy
TexasYojimbo82: we just got a bump
TexasYojimbo82: we have 868,760 votes btw
TexasYojimbo82: 52.4-47.6
ByronL82: % in
TexasYojimbo82: with 53% reporting
ByronL82: oh wow
ByronL82: some big co must have come in...
TexasYojimbo82: ok eday is now 48.6-51.3
TexasYojimbo82: Im thinking so
TexasYojimbo82: the deficit is now 41386 votes
TexasYojimbo82: we have made up 13000 votes with eday so far out of the total deficit of 54421 (early votes only)
TexasYojimbo82: so the projection is now that we're about 30000 votes shy
TexasYojimbo82: or 51.5-48.5 roughly
TexasYojimbo82: to be exact
TexasYojimbo82: I project 1281614 votes with a deficit of 29859 votes
TexasYojimbo82: which is a spread of 2.3 percent
TexasYojimbo82: or 51.1-48.9 thereabouts
ByronL82: travis co came in mostly
TexasYojimbo82: ok
ByronL82: thats where the bump came from
TexasYojimbo82: well FINALLY
TexasYojimbo82: (finally)
ByronL82: webb county is all in
ByronL82: and we won it by 362 votes
TexasYojimbo82: OH HELL YEAH
ByronL82: Jefferson, Cameron, Hidalgo are still ALL out
ByronL82: like 0 or 1 prct from all in from them
TexasYojimbo82: deficit of 40,462 votes
TexasYojimbo82: predicted final: 51.1-48.9
TexasYojimbo82: eday: 48.5-51.5
ByronL82: yah probbly
TexasYojimbo82: total with 54 percent: 52.3-47.7
TexasYojimbo82: Well think about it
TexasYojimbo82: All we have to do to win an election is to clone Andrew about 30,000 times.
TexasYojimbo82: :-)
TexasYojimbo82: It seems to me Harris is still out
TexasYojimbo82: mostly
ByronL82: yeah
TexasYojimbo82: Im still stuck at 54 percent
TexasYojimbo82: Yeah they've only released about 20000 votes in Harris
TexasYojimbo82: that's way too low
TexasYojimbo82: that's actually only 1 out of 7 precincts
TexasYojimbo82: in Harris
TexasYojimbo82: Props 3,9,12,18, and 21 are all still very close
TexasYojimbo82: all others are sailing to victory
ByronL82: i just posted and updated
TexasYojimbo82: I called the race in favor of all props receving more than 55 percent with 54 percent reporting
ByronL82: i'm calling 18
ByronL82: Jim, you might just want to delete yours and update mine....
ByronL82: but do what you want
TexasYojimbo82: Well 18
TexasYojimbo82: is pretty close to my threshold of 55
ByronL82: fine, ok...
TexasYojimbo82: OK go ahead and delete
TexasYojimbo82: I didnt know you were posting
ByronL82: add the %'s to mine if you want
ByronL82: yeah sorry
TexasYojimbo82: 55 is arbitrary if you think 18 is solid go for it
TexasYojimbo82: (Id bet money at this point it is)
ByronL82: down to 51.5
ByronL82: with 66 in
TexasYojimbo82: okeydokey
TexasYojimbo82: updating my sheet
ByronL82: yeah i'm looking to see where they came from
TexasYojimbo82: I predict we will lose by only 9900 vote if the trend holds!
TexasYojimbo82: 9,944 to be exact
TexasYojimbo82: it is too close to call
TexasYojimbo82: the networks are wrong
ByronL82: yeah we've picked up11000 votes today in harris co
TexasYojimbo82: a slight nudge in anti-12 direction and it will go down
ByronL82: we were ahead 2000 in early vote
ByronL82: picked up another 11000 in 262/730 pcts
TexasYojimbo82: Oops wait
TexasYojimbo82: I forgot to change a number
ByronL82: with almost 500 out
TexasYojimbo82: actually I predict the deficit to be 18061 votes
ByronL82: jefferson (heavily anti-12 still out)
TexasYojimbo82: that still puts it at roughly
TexasYojimbo82: 50.6-49.4 range
TexasYojimbo82: Hey Byron
TexasYojimbo82: David wants to know
TexasYojimbo82: what the threshold is for a RECOUNT
TexasYojimbo82: We may have to demand one if this keeps up
ByronL82: dunno
TexasYojimbo82: I think its like a point or something
TexasYojimbo82: or a half-point
TexasYojimbo82: CALL [censored] :-)
ByronL82: Dallas co
ByronL82: gave us a lot of that boost
ByronL82: its almost all in
TexasYojimbo82: If we are legally entitled to one I say we demand a statewide recount
ByronL82: we were down 4000 in early vote, picked up that and another 12000 on eday
ByronL82: so 16000 swing with 40 pcts out in dallas
TexasYojimbo82: projected deficit: 19176 votes
TexasYojimbo82: Projected final: 50.7-49.3
TexasYojimbo82: With a projected total of 1.36 million votes
ByronL82: its all down to nueces, hidalgo and cameron i think... cuz Harris is coming in strong anti-12
ByronL82: if those three behave like normal DPI on e-day we're fine, but they were pro-12 in early vote
ByronL82: so that would give 12 the margin
TexasYojimbo82: yeah
TexasYojimbo82: Now wouldnt that just be a strange twist
TexasYojimbo82: to our "Southern [Texas] Strategy?"
TexasYojimbo82: As in, the whole "the Border will deliver Sanchez" meme
TexasYojimbo82: Byron, what's [censored]'s phone number?
ByronL82: heck we win texas with the urban/suburban anti-12 #'s and a good DPI turnout in the south
TexasYojimbo82: do you happen to know?
ByronL82: [Censored - Private Information]
ByronL82: cuz anti-12 is running WAY ahead of DPI in all of the non-border (except Bexar and Nueces) urban / suburban counties
TexasYojimbo82: I talked to [censored]
TexasYojimbo82: He said he isn't sure what the law is
TexasYojimbo82: But he said that if it is possible that basically he promised someone would look into it.
TexasYojimbo82: I think he was receptive :-)
ByronL82: well... constituent service...
ByronL82: you know
ByronL82: thats what its all about
TexasYojimbo82: yeah, I kinda phrased the request as a joke in that light
TexasYojimbo82: :-)
ByronL82: was he at some event for it?
TexasYojimbo82: Im not sure
TexasYojimbo82: ALSO
TexasYojimbo82: he said he had heard reports of voting irregularities in South Texas
TexasYojimbo82: (not a surprise, but still a story)
TexasYojimbo82: Of course the question is... do we ask for a recount which could distract the Dem base from redistricting next week?
TexasYojimbo82: (if its even feasible)
TexasYojimbo82: "So tell me Master, which counties are still out?" -- Grasshopper.
ByronL82: i'll post that a source said that there are voting irregularities in s texas
TexasYojimbo82: ok
TexasYojimbo82: The McAllen newspaper
TexasYojimbo82: specifically
TexasYojimbo82: listed the wrong polling places
TexasYojimbo82: so Cameron county was in total disarray
TexasYojimbo82: besides other "unspecified" allegations of voting irregularities
TexasYojimbo82: about two-thirds of Harris precincts are also unreported
TexasYojimbo82: btw
TexasYojimbo82: you know what I would kill for? A database that would link which counties haven't reported to their past performance
TexasYojimbo82: Basically, are the ones still out blue counties or red counties?
TexasYojimbo82: From what I see
TexasYojimbo82: It still looks like East Texas
TexasYojimbo82: i sout
TexasYojimbo82: is out
TexasYojimbo82: About a third of Bexar
ByronL82: yeah
TexasYojimbo82: half of Brazoria
ByronL82: Harris is the big question
TexasYojimbo82: most of Cameron county is out
ByronL82: if the rest of Harris goes the way the Harris votes in NOW go, it's a huge anti-12 vote
TexasYojimbo82: two-thirds of Galveston county are still OUT
ByronL82: but then Cameron, Hidalgo and Nueces are all huge ?
TexasYojimbo82: roughly half of Jefferson is still out
ByronL82: new #s coming.........
TexasYojimbo82: Let me make a bold prediction... most of the boxes still OUT are DEM precincts
ByronL82: if thats the case, then..........
ByronL82: jefferson is 60% in... low e-day vote though anti-12
TexasYojimbo82: ok
ByronL82: Harris still sittin on 262/730