Burnt Orange Report

An Early Look at the U.S. Senate

By Byron LaMasters

While I usually don't look to the National Review for a fair and balanced overview of politics, they did manage to produce a decent overview of the senate races from 15 months out. I think that the conventional wisdom is that the GOP has the upper-hand on paper, as more Democratic seats are in play. Still, suggesting that 12 Democratic seats are vulnerable to some degree is a bit of a stretch. Even so, it's worth taking a look. Here's their analysis and my comments on each race.

ALASKA: Republican Lisa Murkowski is a senator because her father made her one last year, after he vacated his Senate seat and became governor. She will have to fend off charges of nepotism, plus a possible pro-life primary opponent. The Democrats are rallying around former governor Tony Knowles, whose main challenge will be distancing himself from a national party that opposes Arctic drilling — something that's very popular in our northernmost state. This is one of the GOP's most worrisome races.

Fair enough. Even with Knowles, Alaska is a tough state. If the race is Knowles vs. Murkowski, I'd call it a toss-up. If it's Knowles vs. someone that beats Murkowski in the GOP primary, I'd give Knowles a slight edge.

ARKANSAS: Democrat Blanche Lincoln will coast to reelection if Gov. Mike Huckabee decides to sit out. He says he'll make a decision following a special state legislative session in September.

This is a stretch. Huckabee might make it competetive, but Lincoln is popular and has little to worry about.

CALIFORNIA: Many Republicans wish that Gov. Gray Davis weren't facing a recall election — they'd prefer to have Democrat Barbara Boxer linked to an unpopular governor leading a demoralized party. The GOP takes some solace from the fact that Boxer hasn't done a lot of fundraising yet. The Republican field won't be settled until after October's recall vote.

Another stretch. Republicans always target Boxer and they never come close to knocking her off. Anyway, I don't see how Davis's unpopularity can really hurt Boxer too much.

FLORIDA: Democrat Bob Graham can't run for reelection and national office at the same time. Even though his presidential campaign is floundering, he remains a strong possibility as a veep candidate. Republicans seeking the GOP nod include former Rep. Bill McCollum, Rep. Mark Foley, and state Speaker Johnnie Byrd. Rep. Dave Weldon and others may also run.

I think that Graham will drop out well before the filing deadline in Florida, but I'm not sure if he'll run again. I'd love to see Alex Penelas run if Graham doesn't. Closet case Mark Foley will never win a GOP primary.

GEORGIA: The retirement of Democrat Zell Miller has attracted a group of strong GOP contenders, including businessman Herman Cain, Rep. Mac Collins, and Rep. Johnny Isakson. This is the GOP's best pick-up opportunity.

Agreed. I think that Democrats could make it competetive with Jim Marshall. I'd love to see Shirley Franklin run, but I doubt that she could win (although it would energize the Black vote to the extent where it could help us pick up a congressional seat or two).

ILLINOIS: Republican Peter Fitzgerald's pending retirement makes this one of the GOP's two most vulnerable seats. Many Republicans were disappointed by former governor Jim Edgar's decision not to run; Andrew McKenna and Jack Ryan appear to be the current leaders for the nomination, though others may yet emerge. The Democrats have a crowded field, but the establishment appears to favor state comptroller Dan Hynes.

This seat is clearly the most likely Democratic pickup. I'd be happy with most of the Dems running, although my personal favorite is Barak Obama. Archpundit has all the latest.

LOUISIANA: Everything rests on Democrat John Breaux — if he seeks reelection, he wins easily. If he quits the Senate, this seat becomes competitive, with Rep. David Vitter as the leading Republican.

Republicans have never won a Senate race in Louisiana. I'd be surprised if Breaux retires, but if he does I'm sure that a group of University Democrats will be there in December 2004 to help push the Democrat towards victory.

MISSOURI: Earlier this year, a Democratic poll showed Republican incumbent Kit Bond looking more vulnerable than expected. State treasurer Nancy Farmer apparently thinks she can win. She'll be a long shot, but the Democrats keep sounding optimistic about their chances here.

This should be a competetive race. I think that if Farmer can get lots of EMILY's List money and is able to portray Bond as tired and lazy (much like Maria Cantwell and Debbie Stabenow did to their opponents in 2000), then Farmer might squeak by. It still leans Republican at this point, however.

NEVADA: Democrat Harry Reid won reelection in 1998 by less than 500 votes. He will be a top Republican target if Rep. Jim Gibbons gets in the race. If Gibbons stays out, Reid probably keeps the seat.

Fair analysis.

NORTH CAROLINA: Golden-boy Democrat John Edwards isn't looking so golden these days — his presidential campaign isn't taking off and his popularity back home is sinking. Rep. Richard Burr will give him a tough time, assuming he seeks reelection.

I still think that Edwards will win re-election pretty easily (maybe under 55%, but he'll win). His seat, however, is jinxed. Still, I think it's quite premature to write his senate obituary.

NORTH DAKOTA: In 2000, George W. Bush ran 25 points ahead of Al Gore and Ralph Nader in this bright-red state. This simple fact gives Republicans hope that they can beat Democrat Byron Dorgan in a presidential-election year. But first they need to find a viable candidate. Their best bet would be former governor Ed Schaeffer, but he says he's not running.

This is another GOP stretch. Dorgan's very popular in North Dakota, and despite White House preasure, Shaeffer has said that he's not interested repeatedly.

OKLAHOMA: Nobody will beat Republican Don Nickles if he runs for reelection — but he says he won't make an announcement until early next year. If the seat opens, GOP Rep. Ernest Istook may throw his hat in the ring. Without Nickles, though, the race would be competitive.

Next time there's an OK open seat, Brad Carson will run and make things competetive, but Nickles is safe as long as he wants the seat.

PENNSYLVANIA: Republican Arlen Specter faces a conservative primary challenger in Rep. Pat Toomey. A Specter loss would be a major upset, but Specter appears to be taking Toomey seriously. Democrats are getting behind Rep. Joe Hoeffel, who would be an underdog against Specter but would give Toomey a genuine race.

I'm certainly looking forward to a bloodbath in the GOP primary. Specter will win the primary, but he could be vulnerable in November if the primary is sufficiantly bloody.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Democrat Ernest Hollings hasn't said yet whether he's running for reelection, but he isn't raising money like a man who intends to stay in the Senate. Republicans like their odds no matter what he decides — though they've often put Hollings in their crosshairs before, only to see him survive. The top GOP candidates are former attorney general Charlie Condon and Rep. Jim DeMint.

Hollings will probably hold on if he runs again. Otherwise, the seat is right up there with Georgia in terms of Democratic vulnerability.

SOUTH DAKOTA: Republicans would love nothing more than to defeat Tom Daschle next year, and there's a chance former Rep. John Thune, who narrowly lost to Sen. Tim Johnson last year, could do it. But so far he's undeclared.

Another stretch. Thune's chance was last year against Johnson. If he couldn't beat Johnson, he won't beat Daschle. And now Daschle has a blog, so clearly, he can't lose now.

WASHINGTON: Republican congressman George Nethercutt announced yesterday that he will challenge Patty Murray. As an incumbent, Murray must be considered the favorite. Nethercutt, however, knows something about knocking off big-time Democrats: He was elected in 1994 by beating Speaker of the House Tom Foley. Murray is sure to bring up the fact that since then, Nethercutt has reneged on a term-limits pledge.

Murray has two solid victories under her belt. Dunn would have given her a run, but Nethercutt won't be able to compete with Murray in the western part of the state and the suburbs where votes needed for a Republican to win in Washington are. Just because he beat Tom Foley doesn't mean he can walk on water.

WISCONSIN: Democrat Russ Feingold is the odds-on favorite, but the Republican nominee here may get a boost if the president campaigns heavily in the state, as is expected.

Another stretch. But this race could become competetive. Feingold always runs close races, so it could become a race.

So Ohio won't be competetive? C'mon! We got Jerry! I'm more surprised that KY (Bunning) and CO (Campbell) are not even on the radar screen. Do I expect Democrats to pick up either? Not really, but I think that both could become competetive, especially if Campbell retires.